Donald Trump has said Iran cannot have a nuclear weapon 74 times. I know that because the White House has a page with that title: 74 times that President Trump has made clear that Iran cannot have a nuclear weapon. He seems a little obsessed. At his cabinet meeting the other day, he said “the world will be in great danger” if Iran gets a nuke. He has never said why this would be true. Because they’re such bad guys? There are plenty of bad guys in the world, and some of them already have nukes.
Hello, Putin. Hello, Xi.
What’s his obsession really about, anyway? Trump wants to be remembered as the guy who built the ballroom, the guy who ruined the Kennedy Center, the guy who put his name on everything but street curbs in Washington D.C.
(Ooops, sorry. I may have just given him an idea.)
The one thing he doesn’t want to be remembered as is the guy who let the Ayatollah get a nuclear weapon. Or ten or twelve. He tried using the bully pulpit. He’s been yapping about Iran never having a nuke since 2011, according to his own website. You would think that if he was so adamant about it, he wouldn’t have cancelled Obama’s nuclear deal with Iran. It was signed in 2016 and would have limited Iran’s enriched uranium to 3.6 percent for 15 years. That would have meant that Trump didn’t have to worry about Iran getting a nuke until 2031, and he would be out of office by then. Not his problem.
But he cancelled Obama’s deal, the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, in 2018. The JCPOA, as it was known, was signed by the U.S. and the other permanent members of the U.N. Security Council -- China, France, Russia, and the United Kingdom, plus Germany and the European Union. That sounds pretty good, right?
Big problem. That would mean Barrack Hussein Obama got the credit for Iran not having nukes. We couldn’t have that, could we? Plus, it was negotiated by Secretary Swiftboat himself, John Kerry. Can’t have those two commies responsible for the world being safe from Iran having nukes for 15 years, can we? Besides, Trump wouldn’t have had the issue to bellow about – OMG! Iran’s about to get a nuke!
He tried bombing Iran’s nuclear facilities, which had come back online after Trump cancelled Obama’s deal in 2018. “Obliterated” was the line they came up with to describe what had been done to Iran’s nuclear capability after Trump’s 12-day bombing campaign, dubbed “Operation Midnight Hammer,” of course, because Hegseth had put his Office of Guys Who Come Up With Macho Names on the job, and that’s what they came up with.
Then there were intelligence reports that, well, they didn’t really get all the enriched uranium, and the centrifuges somehow survived. So, Trump started a war, because, as he said just days before February 28, “They can’t have nuclear weapons. It’s very simple.”
Everything to Trump is “very simple.” Now, here we are three months later, and Trump is working on a “deal” with Iran that says something like, “Iran pledges not to develop a nuclear weapon,” or maybe not. Iran has insisted publicly that the deal doesn’t say that. Anyway, the key thing about Trump’s new deal with Iran is that they agree to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, which wasn’t an obsession of Donald Trump before, but now it is, because ooops, it wasn’t closed before Trump’s war. All his MAGAs are bellying up to the pumps out there and putting $75, $100, $125 in their pickups and they’re complaining about the price of gas, and Trump looked around and saw more than a thousand tankers parked on both sides of the Strait of Hormuz, and suddenly he decided that maybe reopening oil trade in the Persian Gulf is more important than Iran getting nukes.
Or something like that. It’s so hard to keep up with what obsession he’s working on and what he says he’s going to do about it. Hegseth probably has an Office of Trump’s Latest Obsessions burrowed away on Basement Level 3 of the Pentagon trying to keep up.
Here’s what the problem is, or one of the problems, anyway. Trump has surrounded himself with such an insane gaggle of incompetent fools that there is nobody around the administration who remembers what the word “proliferation” means. It describes why countries want nuclear weapons in the first place. Let’s have a look at India and Pakistan, the latest entries in the so-called nuclear club. They don’t like each other. In fact, they really don’t like each other. So, because both countries were afraid the other would get nukes, they started working on their own nuclear programs, and what do you know, they both developed nuclear weapons! Why? Proliferation. As Trump likes to say, it’s simple: The other guy’s got nukes, so I’ve got to have nukes. It’s what enemies do.
In the Middle East, the big sworn enemies, the local Pakistan and India if you will, are Israel and Iran. Israel has nukes. They don’t have a sign in the Negev reading “We’ve got nukes,” but they do. Everyone knows it. So, Iran wants nukes. Proliferation. It’s simple.
The problem with getting nukes is, once you get them, you become the target of everyone else who’s got nukes. They don’t want you to use them, so they do some nuclear saber rattling. If you use your nukes on us, we’ll wipe you off the face of the earth. They used to call it MAD, Mutual Assured Destruction, but they don’t even bother calling it that anymore.
Iran knows this. We may not like Iran, we may not like the idea of their “Islamic Republic” and the way they want so badly to spread the Muslim faith everywhere that they are willing to use terrorism to do it, but hey! There are other states with their own reason for using terror to spread whatever it is they want to spread.
Iran is just playing the proliferation game. Israel has nukes, so we want nukes. Does that mean if Iran gets nuclear weapons that they will use them against Israel? Well, India and Pakistan hate each other. They haven’t hit each other with nukes, because they know the price they’ll pay. Bye-bye India. Bye-bye Pakistan. No more ruling elites. No more Gulfstreams. No more shopping trips to Paris. No more condos in Monaco and London.
Human beings have this annoying habit of wanting to use violence, including starting wars, against people they don’t like while staying alive to enjoy whatever fruits that come with their violence and wars. But look at what Russia has done in Ukraine. They want the Donbas and the rest of the regions along Ukraine’s border with Russia, and what have they done? They’ve destroyed what they said they wanted. It’s a wasteland, Eastern Ukraine.
What sense does it make? Absolutely none. What sense did it make for Trump to go to war against Iran? None. That is clear by now. He hasn’t achieved a single goal. He hasn’t knocked out their nuclear program. He hasn’t stopped them from exporting their revolution through groups like Hamas and Hezbollah. Despite the pounding they’ve both taken from Israel, they’re still alive. He hasn’t frightened the Iranian leadership into “unconditional surrender,” which he said was his goal back when he was babbling and Truth-Socialling his aims and dreams all night in the Before Days. That would be the Before They Closed the Strait of Hormuz Days.
Donald Trump isn’t going to get a “deal” with Iran that includes giving up their nuclear ambitions, if for no other reason than Iran doesn’t like being pushed around, and they don’t think Donald Trump has any business telling them that they can’t have nukes.
Look, if we really wanted Iran and all the other nasty countries we consider our enemies to not have weapons of mass destruction, we would be trying to ban them from developing their drone capability. If there’s one thing we’ve learned in the last four years, it’s that drones are weapons of mass destruction because they can be used in mass quantities, and they’re very, very deadly, and they’re cheap as hell.
Where is Iran’s drone manufacturing? Same place that its nuclear program is. Same place Ukraine’s and Russia’s drone factories are: Underground.
We’re rapidly reaching a point in history when waging war will become absurd, because technology has caused something extraordinary to happen. War has become cheap, and it can be carried out remotely. Nuclear war is already absurd. It’s too expensive in terms of losing everything from lives to cities to electrical grids to water systems – all the necessities of modern life.
It’s absurd for Trump to demand that Iran is never to have nukes. Iran is going to get nukes, and just like India and Pakistan having nukes as they face off across a border of permanent acrimony and hate, the world will go on. If Trump is looking for something to do in those few hours when he’s not obsessing about his ballroom and the Kennedy Center and his 250 dollar bill and hiding the bruises on his hands and bragging about passing genius-level dementia tests, he should call Hegseth over at the Pentagon and tell him to get off his ass and stop spending billions on aircraft carriers and fancy jets that even Iran can shoot down and start developing a helluva gigantic drone program. Everybody else is. Gotta be bigger and better and more expensive than every other macho dude in the neighborhood, right?

