Let’s say you’re a Middle East expert on the Trump White House national security team, or maybe you’re what they call a “planner” in “Muscles” Hegseth’s Pentagon. It’s sometime in 2025. Israel’s so-called 12 Day War, and the U.S. “Operation Midnight Hammer” strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities has been over for several months.
Holes have been found in Trump’s claims that the attack had “obliterated” Iran’s nuclear sites. A Defense Intelligence Agency assessment of the effectiveness of the strikes was leaked. The DIA concluded that while entrances to Iran’s underground bunkers were destroyed, it was unlikely that Iran’s enriched uranium and the centrifuges necessary to enrich it were destroyed. In an interview, Vice President Vance admitted that the administration didn’t know where Iran’s enriched uranium was kept. The DIA estimated that all those bombs and bunker busters dropped by B-52’s and B-2 bombers had put Iran’s nuclear program back by “a few months,” not the total destruction claimed by Trump and Hegseth.
Trump got mad. He ordered an investigation into who leaked the DIA report. In August, Hegseth fired the DIA Director, Lieutenant General Jeffrey Kruse.
The upshot was that Iran still had a nuclear program. Trump began raising the alarm again: Iran could have a nuke in a matter of months, not years.
The word went out from the Oval Office or the 12th hole at Trump’s Doral golf resort, or wherever it is that Trump makes his Big Decisions. It’s time for a war on Iran.
In years past, even during such bumbling administrations as that of George W. Bush, who started a war with Iraq without planning what he would do after he took over the country, the least that the Pentagons of the past would do is have a look at the history of past conflicts involving the target country. Well, in the case of Iraq, the First Gulf War pretty much decimated Saddam’s army in just a few days, which led to the decision by Vice President Cheney and his pet Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld, that the U.S. did not need to field the gigantic army that former Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff and Secretary of State Colin Powell had contended was necessary for victory. So, Rumsfeld famously, or infamously, went with “the army you have rather than the army you want,” and they sent about 140,000 troops into battle and fired Army Chief of Staff General Eric Shinseki, who had disagreed at a congressional hearing about the number of troops necessary to attack Iraq, saying, correctly as it turned out, that “several hundred thousand troops” would be necessary.
I’m bringing up all this now-ancient history to make the point that exactly none of this sort of planning happened at the Pentagon or anywhere else before Trump decided to attack Iran on February 28. If they had taken a look at the history of Iran’s military and its political leadership since the revolution of 1979, they would have discovered that Iran was attacked by another country, Iraq, in 1980, and fought a war for eight long years to defend itself.
Casualty figures for that war are disputed, but most historians agree that a total of 500,000 soldiers from both sides lost their lives in the Iran-Iraq war. Iraq’s official tally is about 250,000 “martyrs.” Iran’s “Foundation of Martyrs” admits to having lost 155,000 to 172,000 soldiers. Other estimates are much, much higher, with at least one study holding that Iran lost between 500,000 and 750,000 soldiers in the war. Figures for the wounded are also in dispute, but there appears to be some agreement that 400,000 to 600,000 Iranian soldiers were wounded severely enough to require hospitalization.
Whatever the true figures, the Iran-Iraq war was terrible. Both countries had modern air forces with jet fighters and fighter-bombers. Both had huge armored forces. Both were able to conscript hundreds of thousands, even as many as a million, young men to fight in their armies. Both had massive stockpiles of munitions. Both had economies that used oil money to keep going. Iran was backed by a coalition of countries including North Korea, Libya and China. Iraq received military aid from Russia and targeting information from the U.S., as well as loans from Saudi Arabia and other gulf nations opposed to Iran.
The war itself resembles the war between Ukraine and Russia. Iraq was the aggressor, invading Iran in September of 1980. Iraq was able to seize some Iranian territory. Both countries tried unsuccessfully to destroy each other’s air forces. The war quickly settled into trench warfare, with Iran gradually taking back territory it had lost with forays through the front lines to encircle Iraq’s forces. Both sides, but primarily Iran, used variations of “human wave” attacks against the other, causing huge casualties and loss of life. Two days into the war, there was a battle for the Iranian city of Khorramshahr that lasted over a month and cost each side about 7,000 deaths and an unknown number of wounded. The city was occupied by Iraq for two years, and then a second battle returned it to Iranian control, again at great loss of life.
The war ground on. A ceasefire was proposed in 1982, but rejected by Iran, which went on the offensive, attacking Iraq again and again. Iraq was largely on the defensive after 1982, but Iran suffered huge losses in its offensive against Iraq. From 1983 to 1984, the war was stalemated, with neither side gaining advantage. Both countries spent great percentages of their gross domestic product on their militaries.
Iraq attacked Iran’s Kharg Island in 1984 and bombed Iranian tankers, trying to goad the West into entering the war on Iraq’s side to return oil shipping back to normal. Lloyd’s of London estimated that during the war, about 550 commercial vessels were attacked and more than 400 civilian sailors were killed.
In 1985, Iraq went on the offensive, launching air attacks on Iran’s cities. Iran launched a counteroffensive, crossing the Tigris River and taking a section of the Baghdad-Basra highway. Iraq counterattacked using chemical weapons and flooding Iranian trenches with river water from the Tigris.
In 1986, Iran attacked northern and central Iraq, its forces getting as close as 70 miles from Baghdad. Saddam started conscripting large numbers of Shiites into its army and throwing them wholesale into the battles with Iran. Later, after the U.S. took control of Iraq, Saddam would be accused by the Shiite majority that ended up in control of the country of using the Iran-Iraq war to control the Shiite majority simply by having so many young Shiite men killed in the war.
The war went back and forth for the next two years, with Iran launching human-wave attacks trying to take Basra, and Iraq hitting Iranian oil refineries and firing large numbers of its Scud missiles at Iranian forces. Iran used drones armed with warheads from RPG-7 rockets for the first time during the war.
By 1986 and 1987, Iran had developed its own defense industries, producing its own ballistic missiles, anti-ship missiles, tactical missiles, artillery pieces and ammunition. All of this is still true of Iran…and more…and it started during the Iran-Iraq war.
Both countries were weary of the war and looking for a way out. Saddam threatened Iran with massive attacks using “weapons of mass destruction,” which meant chemical weapons. Iraq had bombed Iranian Kurdish villages with chemical weapons repeatedly, so it wasn’t an idle threat.
Finally in July of 1988, Iraq bombed more Kurdish villages with poison gas. Iran’s political leadership told its religious leaders that the war might last until 1993, and the continuation of the war would bankrupt the country. Iran accepted a U.N. ceasefire resolution on the 20th of July, 1988. There were sporadic attacks back and forth on each other’s shipping and more chemical attacks by Iraq on Kurdish villages controlled by Iran, but finally by early September, the anti-Kurdish attacks ended and many Kurds that had been in northern Iraq fled into Iran. As many as 50,000 to 100,000 Kurds had been killed by Iraq.
Prisoner exchanges went on for years. Iran continued a naval blockade of Iraq’s oil port, but Iraq used Kuwait and other Gulf nations and Turkey to ship its oil. The negative economic effects on both countries went on for years.
What lesson should have been learned by Pentagon planners before they shot a single missile or dropped even one bomb on Iran? The punishment Iran was willing to take to defend its land, its people, and its oil business was enormous. Eight years and more than a million total casualties. It is unthinkable, really.
Trump is in the sixth month of his war with Iran. Despite the noises he’s made about ceasefires and Iran wanting to “make a deal,” there is no ceasefire, and there is no deal, and there are no negotiations. Iran is in control of the Strait of Hormuz, having learned from Donald Trump himself that their power as a country is larger than the size of its population, the strength of its military, or even the possibility it may one day have a nuclear weapon.
Iran has been ejecting invaders for four thousand years. Iraq was just the latest invader, before Trump and Hegseth decided that the way to defeat the Islamic Republic of Iran was to blow through practically every missile we have with no backup plan and no ability to restock our supplies of offensive and defensive missiles.
Trump famously doesn’t read. All Hegseth apparently reads are his tattoos and the labels on whatever he’s hiding in his desk these days.
Iranian leaders know their own history by heart. They laughed at Trump’s Fourth of July fisticuffs on the White House lawn and his pathetic “fair” on the National Mall. All his flyovers of U.S. jets did was waste fuel, the price of which has continued to rise as Iran’s blockade of the Strait of Hormuz goes into its sixth month, with no end in sight.
One of the things Iran has learned since its revolution is the power of what they did to Jimmy Carter in 1980 by keeping the hostages locked up until he lost his election. Do you think that Iran’s leaders might have the same sort of plan for Donald Trump as the date of the mid-term elections approaches? All they have to do is sit back and say that the Strait is closed until they say it’s open. That’s it. Words alone will do it, and there aren’t enough missiles or bombs in the U.S. arsenal to change that.
This is what Trump’s insane ambition and his refusal to study history does. It costs blood and treasure. Our blood. Our treasure.






