The news over the last few days, and even one of my columns, has been about whether Trump will attack Iran right after the midterm elections. The Iranians certainly think he will. They have been rattling their asymmetric sabers, threatening U.S. interests around the world with terror attacks, even making noises about an assassination campaign of some kind, which makes complete sense given that we were involved in assassinating their religious leader and most of his family and the top political leadership of the country.
I saw one estimate on a military website that Iran may have as many as 200,000 missiles, a number which clearly came from an Iranian source as a warning of their capability to hit their Gulf neighbors and what is left of U.S. military installations in the region, should Trump order a new attack.
Trump will probably order that attack. Signs certainly seem to point in that direction. He’s got another carrier group out in the Indian Ocean within striking distance of Iran. He’s got another 10,000 ground troops over there awaiting his orders, although what in bloody hell he thinks he can do putting “boots on the ground” anywhere in the Middle East makes no sense at all, especially since he has ordered Americans out of Middle East embassies and any other government buildings or installations where we still have them.
His hand-puppets have been making noises about the big attack in terms of days – I’ve seen two or three days bandied about. Which raises the question of what he expects his bombs and missiles would accomplish in such a short time. I have an answer for that: Nothing of consequence. They’re talking about “taking out” infrastructure this time – power plants and bridges have been mentioned. The thing is, Trump has telegraphed every one of his intentions, so the Iranians are very likely to be ready for all of it. They’ve probably got back up power generation already online, and some sort of way of dealing with blown up bridges with traffic diversions if not temporary bridging waiting in the wings.
So, what is the point of the whole thing? Trump has an itch, or at least that seems to be the closest estimation of his “reasoning” for another attack on Iran, if there is even that much thought behind it. His ego needs a boost is probably another cause, which should be especially necessary after his candidates take a licking in the election on November 3.
Trump proved the last time he bombed Iran that he has no concept at all of what the follow-on effects of his war on Iran mean to the rest of the world, beginning right here in the good old U.S.A. He told his MAGA droolers in Georgia yesterday that he doesn’t give a shit how much they’re paying for gas and even threw in some bragging about how much money his pals in the big oil companies are pocketing.
But his cluelessness knows no bounds. He has destabilized the entire planet by fucking up the oil markets, and his war has inadvertently given Iran the opportunity to do something they’ve been trying to do for decades: remake the Middle East in their image, under their power.
It’s the kind of big fuck-up that gives destabilization a bad name. Political leaders and the companies to which they are beholden around the world like it when things are on an even keel. When things are economically and politically stable, they can busy themselves crapping on their poor people and rewarding their rich friends and making themselves wealthy in the process. When markets go to shit, wars break out over shortages and there is migration that inevitably follows economic problems.
Trump’s number one problem is that he does not understand what a war is. What it’s not is a video game you watch on big flat screens at Mar a Lago while some guy in black trousers and a white shirt and bow tie brings you another Diet Coke. War is also not something you do because you’ve got pumped-up lunatics like Hegseth around you talking about winning the war on trans people, the war on teaching history that doesn’t comport with your view of the world, in which Confederate generals still have “honor” and slavery is a thing that is best tucked away in a dark closet somewhere and not brought up around impressionable children.
Over the last 50 years or so, the right wing has conceptualized too many “wars” they want to win – the war on abortion, the war on the libs, the war on woke, and on and on. Trump is not a product of this strain of “conservatism,” as it used to be called, as much as he is its major beneficiary. In his abject ignorance, he thinks of war the way they do, the Steven Millers and the Steve Bannons and Roger Ailes and the rest of them. He thinks of war in terms of ratings. If he’s got lots of cool boom-booms and images of F-18’s taking off from carriers on TV, his ratings will go up.
The worst thing about fools like Trump is that they think stuff like “regime change” equals winning a war. What they missed by not reading Von Clausewitz or Sun Tzu is the part about bringing entire nations to their knees by killing not thousands of people, but millions, and destroying the entirety of their industrial bases along the way. That’s why we haven’t won a war in the last 80 years. We’re a democracy, and when at least some of our best thinkers and political leaders saw what it took to win the last war we won in Europe and the Pacific, our democracy kind of lost its taste for war. So, what we’ve seen in its place are regional conflicts based on lies that go nowhere, because there’s no real will behind them.
Iran is turning into Trump’s Iraq or his Vietnam – you pick it – complete with people from his administration leaking to the media that the war could go on for another year or more. Trump’s war on Iran is not a quagmire yet. It’s a deeply ignorant man who has gotten himself into a contest with a country that has seen conquerors come and go for more than 4,000 years. Trump is just another one. His mistake is to think that his war on Iran can be ended with a “deal.” Everything to him is real estate. But in real estate, two sides start bargaining, one side way high, the other way low, and after arguing over price, they come to an agreement somewhere in the middle so something can change hands or be built.
Trump the real estate guy forgot that Iran holds the upper hand because they own the real estate he wants, and not only that, they own the sea around it, chiefly the Strait of Hormuz, which is the way in and out of where Trump and the world need to go. Gotcha. They win. He loses.
In the meantime, the number of countries on the Level 4 “do not travel” list from the State Department will only grow, as the world becomes less and less stable and more countries fall into disrepair and violence and wars of their own.
Not to worry, however. Hegseth is checking everyone’s testosterone and making sure guys aren’t playing women’s sports at the service academies, and all the bathrooms at the Pentagon are still marked with an “M” and a “W.” With Trump holding prayer meetings at the White House, we may be running out of bombs and missiles, but we’ve got plenty of Bibles.












