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Bye-bye billionaires!

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MSNOW has called the sixth Senate seat flip, giving Democrats control of the Senate and the House. I just heard one of the panelists say that Susan Collins called Troy her opponent, Troy Jackson, in Maine and conceded. Three Republican House seats in Iowa just flipped to the Democrats. Things are moving fast, and they are moving toward even more wins by Democrats in the House.

The opposition party has won back both houses of Congress in a midterm election only three times since World War II. The results for Michigan and Alaska aren’t even in, and it’s already a political earthquake in Washington D.C. The White House will not get a single law passed during the next two years. Not one. They won’t get another person confirmed by the Senate. For anything. No more judges. No more cabinet secretaries. No one. It is likely Democrats won’t even schedule confirmation hearings.

But the big realignment in this election was between money and people. Republicans spent billions to elect their candidates in the midterms. Elon Musk alone spent nearly $500 million to elect Republicans, with $250 million of the total going down the Ken Paxton sewer hole in Texas. Silicon Valley billionaires threw tens of millions at Republicans. AI companies put in their millions. So did crypto companies. All of their millions went to Republicans. Here in Pennsylvania, local television was drenched in ads for Day-trader Bresnahan, who had to have raised tens of millions to waste on them. Did. Not. Matter. Paige Cognetti whipped him by nearly 10 points.

None of the billions spent on Republicans in battleground races worked. People ignored the ads those billions bought and went out and voted the way they were going to vote, and they voted for Democrats. I don’t know what’s going to happen between now and 2028, but money is going to play a different role in that election. The vote today was a people’s vote. It was a vote against billionaires as much as it was a vote against Republicans. And it was a vote against the corruption and excess represented by Donald Trump and everything he and his family stand for.

Today, the people spoke in a mandate to reset the balance of power in Washington D.C. Republicans and their oligarch friends tried to buy this election, but the votes of the people were not for sale.

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DGA51
53 minutes ago
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Republicans and their oligarch friends tried to buy this election, but the votes of the people were not for sale.
Central Pennsyltucky
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It’s looking like a landslide. The ground is shaking everywhere. Democrats are winning the midterms!

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We’ve already taken the House, and we’ve won the races we knew we’d win in North Carolina and Georgia, but I’ve got to write this sentence. Georgia will have a governor who is a Black woman, Keisha Lance Bottoms. We’re ahead in Texas. We’re ahead in Kansas. We’re ahead in Michigan. We’re ahead in Ohio. They’re calling House races in North Carolina for Democrats that weren’t on anyone’s radar.

This is an election that’s being won on organization, enthusiasm, and turn out. New voters went to the polls in every state in the country. MAGA stayed home, or coughed hard and looked sideways as they filled out a ballot voting Democrat. This may not be a realignment, but the message tonight, the message tomorrow, the message for the next two years is this: Nobody is afraid of Trump anymore, not even Republicans who will have to defend House and Senate seats they managed to hang onto this year.

There will be hearings, dozens and dozens of hearings. There will be subpoenas, hundreds of subpoenas sent by messenger all over Washington D.C. If you’re a lawyer, and you want to make a quick million dollars, put out a shingle that says “I represent Republicans in trouble on the Hill.” You’ll be lounging on your own yacht in the Chesapeake by next August.

Trump will sputter and whine and lie, but you know what? Donald Trump doesn’t matter tonight, and he won’t matter tomorrow. He’s not just a lame duck. He’s over.

Wow. They just called South Carolina for Democrat Annie Andrews. That was the Lindsey Graham seat. Hell, it was the Strom Thurmond seat! For the next six years, it will belong to a Democratic woman.

We’re going to have some fun writing our Substack columns here at the Truscott-Harris household, and it starts right now.

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DGA51
53 minutes ago
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Not just a lame duck, almost a dead duck.
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A Psalm for Election Day

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What would it mean to read Psalm 72 through the lens of the Gettysburg Address?
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DGA51
15 hours ago
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Click through to the full text.
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Use Google's AI Or Else

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Tired of tech companies trying to shove AI down your throat? Or worse, your children’s throats? Google says open wide, or else!

As covered by Dana Goldstein and Natasha Singer for the New York Times, Google has announced that starting next fall, schools will have the option of turning off AI in the Google toolbox offered to students. But--

If the school turns off AI, threatens the not-actual-mobsters that run the company, students will not have access to Google search. As Goldstein and Singer report:
“Search and A.I. are deeply integrated,” said Chris Phillips, vice president for education at Google. If a school has banned A.I., he added, students “will not have access to search, and they’ll see a message from their school that indicates it’s not available.”

And, you know, creating a version of Google for students that doesn't incorporate AI is just incompatible with their plans to recruit young customers too hard to do.

This from the same company that cannot produce a genAI product that doesn't easily facilitate cheating. Guided Learning is supposed to get students to Learn Stuff rather than just using a cheatbot (spoiler alert: it's still just a cheatbot).

But Google, the folks who previously declared internally that its school products were intended to create a pipeline of future users, really really really really REALLY want to put AI in front of the 70 million future users sitting in schools. They have just had a "negative cash flow quarter" thanks to massive AI spending. That is further exacerbated by the discovery that this AI-incorporated search that they want to force on students actually makes less money than the old approach.

Look, if you are of a Certain Age, you might still harbor the quaint notion that Google's main business is running a search engine. It is not; the New Google's (the post "Don't Be Evil" Google) main business is advertising. But we tend to be sensitive about the idea of turning over young minds and eyeballs to advertisers, so it has been useful for Google to wear its Ed Tech mask when approaching schools.

Only the Ed Tech mask won't cover up AI, and educators and parents and even students have been pretty clear that they'd rather not give children unfettered access to AI products. 

This is a hell of a bold move for Google, considering that there are plenty of other search engines in the world.

I expect that many other tech companies will be whipping up a counter-Google education campaigns by end of business today.  I can only hope that this piece of evil thuggery will blow up in Google's piggy corporate faces, and I certainly intend to share with my own local school district how I think they should respond. 

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DGA51
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In My County, Children Vote

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I will vote today. I always vote; I am what political operatives call a super-voter, a person who has voted in every election he was ever eligible to vote in, and therefore can be counted on to vote next time, so aiming a megaphone of electioneering at him might not be a waste of time. Today, I only vote in three races, and none of them have any great significance because it would be a huge shock and surprise if they didn't go the way they are expected to go. Josh Shapiro seems hard to beat, and my state and US House members-- well, in my area, if Jesus registered as a Democrat and ran against a drowned rat registered as a Republican, I would not bet against the rat.

Anyway, I will still vote, because that's what good citizens do-- they vote. No matter what. No matter the outcome.

But I won't vote until after I pick up the Board of Directors from school, because they always vote with me. Not in the actual election. But in my county, someone decided years ago to start offering ballots to children.

The children vote on issues like favorite type of cookie or best pet or best way to spend vacation. They vote on a special ballot, hand it in, and in a week or so, the local newspaper/website will publish the results. 

One actual result of this is that the Board knows what an election is, how it the voting place is laid out, how one approaches it, waits one's turn, signs your name, marks a ballot-- the whole business. When the day comes that they can vote in the real election, it will be exciting, but it will also be familiar and unintimidating.

Yes, their teachers sometimes run election simulations. But this gives kids exposure to the real thing, the whole business of voting. No mystery. No fear.

And as a bonus, thanks to some of my former colleagues, some high school students are spending the day as volunteers at polling places.

The cost of this Young Voter Education Program is minimal. There's some non-zero number of man-hours used to tabulate. There's the copier paper used to make the ballots. That's about it. 

So my hat's off today to county officials who hit on a simple but effective method of educating the next generation of voters about how the process works and helping them prepare for the day when they can try to execute their obligations as US citizens. 

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DGA51
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The Challenges of Laissez-Faire Democracy

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Economists are frequently accused of being advocates for unfettered and unregulated laissez-faire markets, but anyone who has ever taken a basic introductory economics class knows that this caricature is untrue. The basic intro econ class does spend time on explaining what markets do well. It also spends considerable time on the category of “market failures” where markets often do not do so well, including externalities like pollution, investment in public goods, poverty and inequality, provision of information, encouraging competition rather than monopoly, and other categories. But as Jason Brennan and Christopher Freiman point out in “Against laissez-faire democracy” (Economics & Philosophy 2026, pp. 1–17), many of these conceptual problems arise, albeit in different forms, in democratic elections as well. Thus, arguments in favor of rules and regulations to govern the operation of economic markets are also aguments for rules and regulations to govern elections. For example, they write:

“First, good governance itself suffers from public good problems.” For economists a “public good” is something where just about everyone benefits, but it is hard to charge the beneficiaries individually, and so the good is often underprovided. Examples would incluede scientific knowledge, national defense, and highways. For voting, the public good would be voters who take sufficient time and energy to become well-informed about issues and candidates, because society as a whole would benefit from them making such efforts.

“Second, voting clearly suffers from information and asymmetric information problems. For one, empirical work on voter knowledge overwhelmingly finds that many to most voters are ignorant, not merely of the specific social scientific knowledge needed to form policy opinions, but of the most basic political information, such as general social trends, how their government works, what parties and candidates propose to do and who their incumbent election officials are and what they did while in office … While most voters have low information, most politicians and government officers have high information. Just as auto mechanics, used car salespeople, medical doctors, dentists, roofing inspectors, and other market agents could use their differential knowledge to exploit or defraud consumers, political parties and candidates could use their differential knowledge to exploit or defraud voters. For instance, since voters are generally incompetent to engage in retrospective voting, politicians are liberated to make campaign promises they do not intend to keep. … Relatedly and more generally, principal-agent problems occur in democratic elections as well. In governments, realistically, politicians, bureaucrats, and other have a significant independence and only limited and attenuated oversight from voters. Just as the president of a company or the Gen-Ed committee of a university can use their appointed power for self-promotion, so can elected government agents. …”

“It’s an open question whether political competition would be most efficient if it mimicked competitive markets, or whether instead less than fully competitive political competition is best. Nevertheless, in many places, political competition is high constrained. For instance, in the United States, thanks to first-past-the-postvoting, only two parties have any real chance of winning any election. Further, government itself is by nature overwhelming monopolistic. All things equal, in markets, we expect reduced competition to lead to lower quality and higher prices; reduced competition between suppliers usually benefits suppliers at the expense of consumers. We should expect this applies to politics as well. If we think of the parties and candidates as suppliers and voters as buyers/consumers, then the party duopoly and government monopoly should reduce quality and increase costs. It should tend to benefit suppliers (elected officials and government agents) at the expense of consumers (voters).”

“Finally, democracies also suffer from obvious externality problems. Indeed, this is the key difference between markets and politics. Market decisions are usually and mostly internalized; negative externalities are seen as an anomaly to be corrected. Political decisions are by nature public. For instance, about 37% of the eligible voting public, and 26% of the entire population of the UK voted in favour of Brexit, but the effects of Brexit are borne by everyone else, including losing voters, eligible voters who abstained, children and other citizens ineligible to vote, future generations, and foreigners.” Similarly, an existing renter can vote for rent control, without bearing costs of future renters who will be unable find an apartment.

What sort of regulation of voting and democracy do the authors have in mind? Their tone is deliberately non-radical and experimental here–more about possible policies to be considered rather than hard-edged advocacy. They write:

Consider the problem of public goods. The standard market ‘fix’ is to tax, compel, or provide subsidies to ensure provision. The democratic analogue, which would preserve equality, would be to create participatory incentives, such as stipends for voting or taxes and penalties for non-voting. It could include some sort of reward (or penalty) system for engaging with low-burden information deliveries, such as nonpartisan voter guides.

With regard to information asymmetries, the standard market fix is to have mandatory disclosure and labelling laws – such as nutrition and ingredients lists on food – as well as licensing providers (e.g., medical doctors). Governments could require standardized,i ndependently audited candidate disclosures. Governments could require public registration of campaign promises, which are then monitored and fact-checked by independent boards. Access to public debates and public funding of campaigns could depend on compliance with transparency rules. The standard fix for principal-agent problems is to require and monitor fiduciary duties with third-party auditing. Here, the democratic analogue would be to have public promise trackers with sanctions for deceptive claims, such as fines or media scorecards. Public performance scorecards – such as promise-keeping – could determine eligibility for public campaign funding.

The standard fix for problems of bounded and limited rationality is to control the choice architecture and change the default rules. The democratic analogue would be neutral language and uniform ballot designs. Questions and candidates should be listed in randomized order with plain-language summaries. There could be automatic delivery of voter guides and automatic voter registration with opt-out clauses. Ballots could quiz citizens of their preferred policies and map them onto the registered policy-platforms of parties and candidates.

The standard fix for problems of externalities is to impose Pigouvian taxes, quotas and caps, or pollution and emissions standards. The democratic analogue might to be to have narrow output safeguards for certain democratic decisions. This could include requiring supermajorities for some decisions, judicial review for others, or subjecting some democratic decisions to independent expert review with some sort of veto capability that could later be overturned with a supermajority. The standard fix for problems of limited competition is to impose antitrust rules and to ensure platform neutrality. The democratic analogue would be to have great ballot access equalization, and more transparent and neutral inclusion rules for
debates.

An obvious concern about rules and regulations to govern elections is that they are likely to be captured by special interests or political parties. Would Democrats favor a set of rules to be run and monitored by minions of President Trump? Would Republicans have favored a set of rule to be run and monitored by minions of President Biden? But as the authors point out, there’s a kicker here. If you are not willing to consider trust rules and regulations to facilitate elections, because of concerns over how they will be implemented, then you should have similar concerns over how government run and implement economic regulations as well. The authors write about the idea of regulating democracy: “Note that the burden here, as with market regulation, is not to show that regulation will decisively solve all problems, but rather than it will perform adequately, with the benefits exceeding the costs. (We doubt most readers think that market regulation must be perfect and problem-free to be justified. They should apply this same standard here.)”

The post The Challenges of Laissez-Faire Democracy first appeared on Conversable Economist.

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DGA51
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