The Opinionated Ogre is a Stay-at-Home parent first, foul-mouthed hater of fascist Republicans second. He’s been making the most horrible people in the country miserable for 15 years and the hate he feels for American Nazis is eternal and without limits. He plans to stop torturing right-wing trash the day the last fascist dies. So, you know, never. Please help support this potty-mouthed newsletter for just $5/month or $50/year (Almost 17% less!)
I was ASSURED that Republicans were going to easily dominate Democrats in the fight over the budget. The public would be enraged at the feckless Democrats and Republicans would just walk right over them, with the full support of an adoring public. No one wants a shutdown, right? And the minority party making the demands ALWAYS loses!
That’s what they said and how Republicans have been behaving.
That’s not really how it’s been working out, though:
A Washington Post poll conducted on Oct. 1, the first day of the shutdown, found that 47% of U.S. adults blame Trump and Republicans in Congress, while 30% blame Democrats and 23% said they’re not sure.
The survey found that independents blamed Trump and Republicans over Democrats by a wide margin of 50% to 22%. And one-third of Republicans were either unsure who to blame (25%) or blamed their party (8%).
Perhaps Republicans assumed they would be able to lie their way through this like they lie their way through everything else? After all, the media has been awfully compliant and never calls them on their bullshit. Oh, wait…
Well…that’s a problem. If the press isn’t willing to lie for the GOP, they’re screwed.
But why is that, exactly? The roles are almost perfectly reversed. In almost every other shutdown, Republicans were the minority, and they shut down the government when their demands were not met. Public opinion crushed them to a pulp, and they caved.
Now, Democrats are in the minority, making demands. What will keep them from being crushed in the same way? That is the presumption here, that the minority party has no leverage and will thus lose in a shutdown standoff.
From the beginning, I was confused about this “common wisdom.” It didn’t make any sense because while the broad outline is there, nothing else matches. Whenever Republicans “bravely” stood up to the Democratic majority, they were demanding cuts to things like Medicaid and Obamacare and other parts of the social safety net. These were not popular positions. No one wanted it.
Enter Democrats and their “unreasonable and unserious” demands. What are they, again? Oh yeah! Extend the ACA subsidies so people’s insurance premiums don’t double or triple or more. Also, return at least some of the $900 billion Republicans stole from Medicaid to pay for Elon Musk’s tax break for billionaires.
Republicans said, “Fuck off!” and Democrats said, “You can’t have our votes.” Thus, a government shutdown.
Comparing these two is like comparing cats and dogs. Superficially, they’re similar. Furry, adorable, four legs, and a tail. Try putting a leash on your average cat and taking it for a walk, or try giving it a bath, though. Chances are, you’ll wind up a shredded bloody mess. Dogs and cats may both be beloved pets, but only a moron would treat them the same way.
And so it is with this shutdown. The public overwhelmingly supports the ACA subsidies. They don’t want almost a trillion cut from Medicaid. Democrats are not looking to hurt the country; they want to help people, and the public knows it.
Can we say the same about Republicans? Well…
OK, here’s the thing…if you are planning to sell the public on your story that you are the victims of the mean ol’ Democrats being big ol’ poopy heads and, gee golly!, you wish you could keep the government open! The main thing you want to avoid is rubbing your hands together like a fucking cartoon villain and cackling with glee while bragging about how much you love the idea of a government shutdown.
But Republicans are, fundamentally, very stupid people. Usually, they have REALLY good message discipline. Right now? They’re all over the fucking place. The right-wing podcasters are laughing and dancing that the dumb ol’ government is closed. Right-wing news is not much better.
Here’s how Newsmax was talking about it a few days ago:
Here’s how they were talking about it yesterday:
It gets worse:
Trump can’t shut the fuck up about how awesome the shutdown is going to be. He’s like a little giggling schoolboy pulling wings off a fly. Miller and Vought have told him that he can use the shutdown to hurt blue cities and states and that’s ALL Trump cares about. It hasn’t occurred to him that openly bragging about this might convince people that perhaps Republicans are not serious when they say they want to reopen the government and get back to work.
Meanwhile, Democrats have been repeating over and over that they want to fund healthcare and then they’ll sign the bill.
Who’s going to win THAT messaging war? The side demanding healthcare for tens of millions of Americans or the sadistic bullies laughing at how much pain they’re going to inflict on people? One wonders…
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Now, not EVERYONE around Trump is a fucking moron. If some schmuck like me at a keyboard understands how fragile the regime’s footing actually is, some of the less dense staffers in the White House must as well. And, surprise!, they do:
“President Trump has projected unwavering confidence that he is winning the messaging war over the government shutdown. But behind the scenes, his team is increasingly concerned that the issue at the center of the debate will create political vulnerabilities for Republicans,” the Wall Street Journal reports.
“Advisers are worried that the GOP will take the blame for allowing healthcare subsidies to expire, raising costs for millions of Americans ahead of next year’s midterm elections, according to administration officials.”
Open enrollment for the Affordable Care Act begins November 1st. Providers are already sending letters out, preparing customers for the sticker shock as premiums skyrocket because of the GOP’s greed and utter hatred of the American people.
The Republicans not living completely in the Fox News propaganda bubble know that very soon, social media is going to be flooded with people screaming about the cost of their healthcare going up. It will take approxitametly .005 seconds for the internet to connect that with the GOP refusing to extend the subsidies and agree to the Democrats’ demands.
The public is already not happy with Trump and his regime of corrupt scumbags. Once that other shoe drops? All of the propaganda in the world about trans kids and undocumented immigrants will not save them from the wrath of public opinion.
Democrats, for their part, are under enormous pressure to cave. Obstruction is not a natural fit for them, even when they’re doing it for the right reasons and have support from the public. But they really are holding the higher ground and Republicans have just a few weeks before things get desperately ugly for them.
Remember, they’ve been saying for years that government isn’t even necessary so they cannot pivot and say keeping the government closed is actually terrible. That’s one pressure point gone. The lie that Democrats want trans operations for kids and healthcare for undocumented immigrants is not catching so there’s another pressure point lost. Using the shutdown to punish blue cities and states and further gut the government is unpopular enough that even elected Republicans are expressing reservations about this as a tactic. That won’t stop the regime, but it’s going to blow up in their stupid faces, so good luck with that, jackasses.
Democrats, I’m looking at YOU, Schumer, have to hold the line. It won’t be fun and it goes against everything they believe in a party, but Republicans have left them no choice.
Call the Senate switchboard (202) 224-3121 and tell your Democratic Senator to keep fighting, do not give in to the GOP. If you have a Republican Senator (you have my sympathies), tell them to stand with the American people. Give millions of Americans their healthcare back and reopen the government. If your senator is Ted Cruz, tell him to fuck off.
Be relentless in your messaging. Democrats are demanding healthcare for millions of Americans and Republicans are celebrating shutting down the government so they can DOGE tens of thousands more government employees. This is Trump’s shutdown. This is the GOP’s shutdown. Make them regret ever fucking with this country.
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The Blue Wave has begun and the fascist fucks are scared. There are 31 days until it hits Virginia and Pennsylvania. If I were a billionaire fascist loser, I’d think REALLY hard about getting out of the way.