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The next couple of weeks will tell us a lot about where we are as a country. The price of oil is, as of this writing, wobbling around $92 a barrel. That’s up from the roughly $65 it was just a month ago, but down from the $115 it spiked to last week.
Should the war continue and shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remain closed or severely reduced, we cannot just shift oil production to other parts of the world to make up the difference. Oil prices will rise, and global inflation will rise with them.
Some of Trump’s people are in a hot panic and telling him a prolonged war is suicidal for the midterms. We have to declare victory and leave, Lord Emperor Mr. President, or you’ll be impeached again. You don’t want to be impeached again for the third time, do you, sir?! And Democrats in control of the House and Senate will 100% sue to force the remaining Epstein files to be released. You don’t want all of the remaining Epstein files released, do you, sir?!
On the other hand, not staying to “finish the job” means leaving in place a far more dangerous Iranian regime. Ali Khamenei, as Supreme Leader, was hostile to the West and a monster. I could spend all day listing his crimes.
His son, Mojtaba, the new Supreme Leader, is going to be worse.
Mojtaba is more extreme, is far more interested in developing nuclear weapons, and has a real-world axe to grind (as opposed to political and ideological) with the United States (and Israel) since we just killed both of his parents, his wife, and one of his sons in an unprovoked sneak attack in the middle of peace negotiations.
But we are not prepared for the kind of war it would take to topple the Iranian regime. It would take years and cost thousands of American lives. This was supposed to be quick and easy, not a quagmire. Go in, blow stuff in a manly way, be done, and throw a parade.
Some of Trump’s people are telling him that a prolonged war now is the only way to protect America. Also, ending the war before toppling the government would be seen as surrender, which would make Trump look like a weak sissy. You don’t want to look like a weak sissy like Biden, do you, sir?!
So what does Trump do?
Clearly, he’s swinging back and forth depending on who talked to him last and when the stock market is open. When the market is open, Trump will talk about how this will be a short war. We’re definitely going to be done soon. The market loves that, and stocks go up.
When the market is closed, Trump suddenly remembers how tough he is and talks about how we’ll be there “until the job is done.” How long will that be? Could be weeks. Could be months. No one knows. It’s not up to him. It’s up to Iran to be nice. The market would hate that, but it’s closed, and by the morning, maybe Trump will have changed his mind again.
For a good long while, the legacy press pretended that Trump was running Nixon’s “Madman Theory.” Act crazy, keep everyone off-balance and unnerved, and then play 10-dimensional chess. It allowed them to not ask the scary question. No, not “Is Trump actually a madman?” The question the legacy press has twisted itself into ever-tigher knots to avoid asking is, “Is Trump really as stupid and incompetent as he appears?”
They’ve avoided that question the entire time because the answer is manifestly “Yes.” Trump has no fucking idea what he is doing. Trump 1.0 at least surrounded himself with competent people who could rein in some of his dumber ideas, like dropping a nuke on a hurricane.
Trump 2.0 does not have any adults in the room, and it is no longer possible to hide just how fucking dumb he is. Only an imbecile would look at Venezuela and think, “We can totally do that in Iran! We’ll just kill the leader, and they’ll 100% bend the knee!”
I am no expert in the Middle East, and even I knew Iran wouldn’t fold that easily.
But here we are, in a war with no defined end other than “Iran has to be nice.” Something a child would say. We’re killing hundreds of people a day and creating the conditions for a humanitarian crisis that will lead to tens of thousands of radicalized Iranians, and the end goal is being decided by a toddler.
Said toddler has to choose the two options in front of him now: Maybe save his own skin by ending the war and declaring a TOTAL VICTORY! or continue dropping bombs and…do something else.
TOTAL VICTORY!!!
This option is based on Trump’s desperation. The midterms are just seven months away, and Trump is in deep trouble. If either the House or the Senate flips to Democratic control, a lot of Trump’s corruption will be exposed. If both flip, the hearings will be endless, and how long can the courts slow-walk the release of the Epstein files? Will SCOTUS step in to help? Not guaranteed. Protecting pedophiles is not really a Federalist Society priority and after Trump called Kennedy and Barrett embarrassments to their families, they may not be overly inclined to indulge a man who rapes children.
Even Trump, dumbfuck that he is, understands that high inflation and high gas prices will turn an already uphill struggle in the midterms into a complete rout. All of his plans to tamper with the vote won’t mean anything if the blue wave is large enough. Worse, outright stealing the election becomes impossible if everyone knows Republicans are losing everywhere by 15 points or more.
A little push here, a little push there, and you can “lose” just enough votes to convince people the swing states went for Trump. But in a blue wave of this size? No one will believe Republicans didn’t lose control of their one-seat majority in the House. Overt election interference is just as dangerous as no interference at all for the regime. Tight rope to walk for a fascist regime. My heart bleeds for them.
A prolonged war, even two or three months, would be catastrophic for the economy (on top of all of the people who will die). With an economy that is already floundering, a hard push over the cliff that will send it into freefall, something a competent government with good intentions would have incredible difficulty tackling. Joe Biden managed to do it, and his thanks was to be punched in the face by a country of ingrates and imbeciles who were mad at the price of eggs.
The Trump regime is neither competent nor well-intentioned. The next economic collapse will be met with a clown show alternating between panic and indifference. Panic because it hurts Trump electorally. Indifference because we really do have a “Let them eat cake” regime of millionaire and billionaire elitists detached from reality. I don’t really use “elitist” in my everyday vocabulary, but these people have taken great pains to insulate themselves from the rest of us, living lives of obscene wealth and decadence. Watching The Poors suffer is sport for them. “Elitist” is a pretty good word for that kind of cultivated isolation and cruelty.
Maybe if they had started the war after the midterms and had managed to keep control of Congress, Trump would be more likely to go all-in on a quagmire. But he has finely tuned survival instincts. He’s really going to want to pull out of Iran. If his ego will let him.
Quagmire
This option is Trump giving in to his overwhelming ego and listening to the warmongering neocons who have obviously appealed to Trump’s not-so-inner fascist.
War is fun! War is manly! Killing brown people in faraway countries makes the Evangelicals happy! Iran really made Trump mad during his first time in office. Also, they signed a peace treaty with Obama. Blowing Iran to smithereens scratches two itches at once.
Here, we have Trump deciding that war is the solution to a lot of his problems. Violence abroad makes violence at home more acceptable. Does it? Not really, but Trump may decide to just run with that idea.
The regime has been suppressing reports of possible (likely) terrorist attacks at home. That is a “up is down, black is white” situation. The regime has done nothing BUT fearmonger every second of every day. The only possible reason to suppress this kind of report is because the regime wants the public to be caught unawares by an attack. The more unprepared, the more shocked and afraid people will be. The more shocked and unprepared and afraid, the easier it will be for the regime to declare a “national emergency,” giving itself unlimited power to do anything it wants.
Arrest Muslims. Suspend civil liberties. Make opposition illegal. Put elections on hold. Just for a little while, of course. Just until things calm down and the emergency passes.
It’s Authoritarian 101. The emergency never passes. There’s always a new emergency. Liberities are never restored.
Timothy Snyder wrote about this a few days ago. It’s so obvious what the regime is trying to do; it’s literally in his book, On Tyranny:
We must anticipate, with sadness and resolution. We will be horrified, but we cannot be surprised, if there is a terrorist attack on the United States. If choose to be surprised, we co-create a moment that Trump will exploit to undo what remains of our democracy. If the unthinkable happens, it will happen because some of Trump’s people thought about it, some of them created the conditions for it, and some of them looked away. The responsibility for catastrophe will be theirs. And the responsibility for democracy will be ours.
Trump knows the war will destroy his chances of holding power in the midterms. He may decide his best chance is to use the war to seize control as a dictator. Besides, without the war, the Epstein files will come roaring back. Even with the war, his crimes as a pedophile can only be held off for so long. But without a war and, hopefully, a deadly terrorist attack to justify martial law, Trump’s past will consume him long before he has a chance to steal a single vote in November.
This is where we are right now: Locked in a struggle between Trump’s desperation to win the midterms, telling him to end the war, and his ego screaming at him to stay and fight. Honestly, I don’t know which will win.
I suspect that if there is no terrorist attack in the next month and the regime cannot stage one while oil prices continue to rise, Trump will start to lean very heavily towards declaring TOTAL VICTORY!!! and getting the fuck out of Dodge.
Also, if we run low on interceptors and Iran continues to slam drones into the surrounding Gulf states, they’re going to demand Trump stop the war. They paid billions to destroy their enemy. Being under constant attack was not part of the deal, and they will not have the stomach for it. No more bribes if the war continues, and Trump won’t like that. Although if we’ve already committed ground troops to the fight, backing out will be difficult, and the neocons are pushing Trump really hard for their new forever war.
I won’t say it’s a coin flip, but we are at the whim of a dementia-riddled toddler who has, at most, a third-grade understanding of the Middle East.
Goddamn every single person who said not to vote for Clinton and Harris, the “warmongers.”
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There are only 237 days until the midterms, and the regime is panicking. They’re afraid of us. Keep making them afraid every single day. Remember, you are never alone. We beat the fascists once. We will fucking do it again.