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Susan Rice Knows Accountability Is Coming (Because It Is)

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Saturday evening, as I was sitting in a middle school gymnasium watching my daughter, her friends, and a few hundred random people roller skating, I was supposed to be on my laptop, working on Sunday’s D&D campaign for Anastasia and her bloodthirsty group of teen maniacs. Instead, I was scrolling through the news on my day off.1 Tsk.

Anyway, before getting back to scripting out an encounter with some rather peeved fire giants and potentially unleashing a primordial god and apocalyptic destruction, I saw that the rapidly dying doofus in D.C. was ranting and raving about…Susan Rice?

Wait, what? Susan Rice? I haven’t heard her name in years. Is she even in politics in any way whatsoever these days?

Well, no. She’s doing what so many former administration officials have done over the years, namely, cashing in on their connections. Tacky? Sure. But, ahem, both sides2 do it, and no one seems to be in much of a rush to end it.

Still, not exactly a household name at this moment in time. What in the world did Rice do to send Trump into spasms of rage other than be Black and female, which, admittedly, is usually all that’s required? Turns out she’s on the board of Netflix because…reasons. Trump has been meddling with a multi-gazillion-dollar merger between Netflix and Warner Bros. Discovery because his billionaire fascist buddy David Ellison wants to buy WBD but didn’t make a successful bid. It’s all drama and Ellison is trying to have the regime illegally block the merger.

Anyway! Rice said something that hurt wittle Donny’s feefees, and he demanded Netflix fire her or else!

I’ve been a little distracted for the last couple of weeks, so I’m a little annoyed I missed this, but it’s worth reading her entire statement made on Preet Bharara’s podcast:

“When it comes to the elites, you know, the corporate interests, the law firms, the universities, the media, I agree with you, Preet, it is not, it’s not going to end well for them. For those that decided that it was, you know, that they would act in their perceived very narrow self-interest, which I would underscore is very short-term self-interest, and, you know, take a knee to Trump, I think they’re now starting to realize, ‘Wait a minute, you know, this is not popular.’

“Trump is not popular. What he is doing, whether on the economy and affordability or on immigration, now, is not popular, and that there is likely to be a swing in the other direction, and they are going to be caught with more than their pants down, they’re going to be held accountable by those who come in opposition to Trump and win at the ballot box.

I’ve been saying for some time now that the billionaires and corporations made the bet that the regime would cross the fascist finish line. They would bend the knee, reap the rewards, and there would be no consequences because the rule of law was done.

In the worst-case scenario, the regime would fall, but then Democrats would do what they’ve always done: Try to get things back to normal and “look forward for the good of the nation.” No more billionaire-friendly fascism, but still, no consequences, right?

Except that’s not how Democrats are talking about what comes next:

“And I can tell you Preet, you know, as I talk to leaders in Washington, leaders in our party, leaders in the states, if these corporations think that the Democrats, when they come back in power, are going to, you know, play by the old rules and say, ‘Oh, never mind, we’ll forgive you for all the people you fired, all the policies and principles you’ve violated, all, you know, the laws you’ve skirted,’ I think they’ve got another thing coming.”

This is the thing that sent the right into a foaming rage and got Trump to start his little tweet temper tantrum. Rice is talking about accountability and it triggered the panic response of the fucking fascists.

I have been banging the drum about this since early last year:

I picked up the hashtag #NurembergThemAll from to express this sentiment, and it sums up what Rice is saying as well (although she is far more polite about it). They all thought this would be another round of “racist white men wilding” with no price tag. No hangover. No pentalies. Maybe just a wagging of fingers and clucking of tongues. The fact that people like Susan Rice, Susan fucking Rice, about as far from a rabid firebrand as it gets, are talking about a radical break from how we’ve always let racist asshole bygones be racist asshole bygones tells you that something is fundamentally different this time.

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It’s everywhere. From the grassroots brushfires spreading faster than ICE can control to, as Rice says, “leaders in Washington, leaders in our party, leaders in the states.” Behind every conversation about affordability and housing and immigration is accountability. That’s never happened before, and every racist piece of shit who has been running rampant since January of 2025 knows it. It’s absolutely terrifying them. The louder we get, the more panicked and confused they get. Consequences for Those People! Not us!

As of right now, Netflix is ignoring Trump’s latest temper tantrum:

Netflix co-CEO Ted Sarandos is brushing off President Donald Trump’s demand to remove former U.S. national security advisor Susan Rice from its board of directors, even as the streaming giant seeks federal approval of its bid to purchase Warner Bros. Discovery.

“This is a business deal. It’s not a political deal,” Sarandos told BBC Radio 4’s flagship “Today” program on Monday, Feb. 23. “This deal is run by the Department of Justice in the U.S. and regulators throughout Europe and around the world.”

Just like Jamie Dimon, the CEO of JPMorgan Chase, Sarandos is aware that Trump will not be president for life and the next DoJ will come looking at all of the corporations that made corrupt deals to boost their profits. He’s also aware the courts are no longer rolling over for the regime, and it’s better to fight now than lick fascist boots and pay a steep price in the long run. Ask Disney what happened to their subscriptions when they bent the knee.

Expect to keep seeing this kind of enraged reaction coming from Trump and his cult. Everything they say and do is predicated on the idea that they will never be held responsible for their actions. The more we talk about just that, the more real it becomes. The more real it becomes, the more inevitable it will be. That inevitability will be like an anvil sitting on the chest of every fascist in America, crushing them with fear of what happens when their coup fails (and it will).

I don't know about you, but making fascists spend every waking moment living in fear feels pretty fucking good to me.

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There are 251 days until the most important midterm election in American history. The regime is afraid, and they should be. We are legion, and they are weak. Stay strong. You are never alone.

1

LOL! A day off? From the news? Who even does that?!

2

Ugh. Just typing that made me throw up in my mouth.

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DGA51
5 hours ago
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Central Pennsyltucky
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The Trump Administration is Trafficking Pregnant Children to Texas So They Can't Get Abortions

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As part of its strategy of arresting and warehousing immigrants in abhorrent conditions which are leading to illness and even death, the Trump administration is grabbing up pregnant and unaccompanied migrant children from across the country and shipping them off to Texas so that they can’t get safe and legal abortions — and where they also don’t get adequate medical care.

This is an administration rule: If an undocumented child is pregnant, she goes to a single South Texas shelter in San Benito, where abortion is outlawed and where she will be hours away from the large hospitals that have the kind of specialized obstetric care that pregnant girls need. The girls are being sent to Texas specifically because Texas bans abortion, and moving them there means that they won’t be able to end their pregnancies.

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There are reportedly more than a dozen pregnant girls currently being held at this center. Before this policy was put into place, pregnant children who were in the US illegally and without a guardian would be sent to trained foster families or specialized facilities; not anymore. The directive came from Angie Salazar, the director of refugee resettlement, but was pulled directly from the Heritage Foundation’s Project 2025 plan.

Let’s first wrap our minds around the phrase “pregnant children.” These are mostly rape victims, some as young as 13. Adolescent pregnancies are by definition high risk — pregnancy is a leading cause of death for adolescent girls worldwide. And these are children who are scared and alone, who have traveled very far from home and faced all kinds of trauma and violence along the way (including, often, rape). They are without their parents and facing a life-altering and potentially deadly medical situation that is terrifying in the best of circumstances; they are in the worst of circumstances. They are still going through puberty, which means their bodies are not ready to give birth. They may have sexually transmitted infections from being raped, which can complicate deliveries. And after having control over every aspect of their lives stripped away, from where they live to what has happened to them sexually, the Trump administration is committing what I would qualify as tantamount to a second rape: Saying, just like a rapist does, your body is not yours, and I will do with it what I want.

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DGA51
1 day ago
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Treating young girls this way is tantamount to raping them.
Central Pennsyltucky
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Donald Trump’s air-conditioned war on Iran

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CVN-78 USS Gerald R. Ford Aircraft Carrier US Navy
USS Gerald Ford — Navy photo

The Trump administration has been engaged in a massive military buildup in and around the Middle East preparing for an expected attack on Iran. Do you want to know what all those military assets have in common? They’re air-conditioned. There are no tents waiting to be erected when basecamps are established. No stockpiles of MRE’s, Meals Ready to Eat. There are no woven nylon bags or Hesco barriers ready to be filled with sand and rocks.

Trump has sent two aircraft carrier strike forces to the Middle East. The USS Abraham Lincoln is already in the Persian Gulf area along with its attendant guided missile destroyers, such as the USS Spruance, the USS Michael Murphy, and the USS Frank E. Petersen Jr. The USS Gerald Ford is said to be closing in on its expected station in the Mediterranean Sea, traveling with another group of guided missile destroyers, including the USS Normandy, the USS Rampage, the USS Thomas Hudner, and the USS Roosevelt. Both aircraft carriers are equipped with massive air power, including F-18 D/F Super Hornets, F-35C Lightning stealth fighter/bombers, E-18G Growler electronic warfare and jamming aircraft, E-2D Hawkeye airborne early warning and command aircraft, and MQ-9 Reaper drones. An unknown number of submarines are doubtlessly patrolling underwater in the Arabian Sea and the Persian Gulf area. Some American submarines carry nuclear weapons, some carry Tomahawk Cruise missiles, and some carry a mix of the two. The capability and positions of U.S. submarines is a closely guarded national security secret, but they’re out there ready to launch whenever and whatever Trump tells them to launch.

And of course he’s got his fleet of B-2 bombers back in Kansas and Missouri, ready to fly a kajillion miles and drop their bunker-buster bombs like they did when he hit Iran’s nuclear sites last year.

On bases in Qatar, Jordan, Kuwait and elsewhere in and around the Middle East, more airpower is stationed, including at least 100 F-15E Strike Eagle fighter/bombers and A-10C Thunderbolt ground strike aircraft, plus dozens of airborne refueling aircraft such as the KC-135 Stratotanker and KC-46 Pegasus, and an entire air fleet of cargo planes, including the C-5 Galaxy and the C-17 Globe Master.

I’m sure Trump has ground troops on standby, but neither the Pentagon nor White House is talking about putting “boots on the ground” in Iran. Trump doesn’t do sand and mud. He deploys only weapons systems with air-conditioning.

It’s the essential delusion of Donald Trump and his Pentagon war-mongers: that this country, or any country for that matter, can use air and naval power to achieve its foreign policy goals. To understand what a gigantic bulldozer load of horseshit that is, look no further than our ill-begotten, ill-carried out, and ill-ended military adventures in Afghanistan and Iraq. The Bush administration deployed five carrier groups at the start of the Iraq invasion and many more ground-based attack aircraft that we have on the ground in the Middle East right now. And Bush committed around 170,000 ground troops to the invasion and countless hundreds of thousands more over the years we were in both countries. After more than 20 fucking years, what do we have to show for it? Well, the Taliban has a tighter grip on Afghanistan than it did when we invaded in 2001, and they are far better armed, having stolen every scrap of U.S. military weaponry we gave to the Afghan “army.” Iraq is not led by anyone with “Hussein” in his name, but the country is still mired in sectarian strife, with Iran responsible for supporting the Shiite majority against the Sunni minority.

Quite an accomplishment, eh? And just think: The entire endless clusterfuck cost us $6 trillion and counting, with legacy payments to U.S. military retirements and disabled veterans that will push the total beyond $8 trillion, according to most estimates. And let’s not forget the 7,000 American troops who gave their lives. Their parents, brothers and sisters, spouses, and grandparents certainly haven’t forgotten them.

Trump probably thinks he’s a genius for coming up with the Grand Idea of using bombs to pound Iran into submission and achieve whatever goals he thinks he has. We don’t know what those goals are, because he hasn’t said. Leaks from the masterminds he surrounds himself with say that he wants to destroy Iran’s nuclear program. We were told he’d already done that last year with his bombing campaign, but hell, maybe Trump forgot, or maybe he’s just making shit up as he goes, or maybe he’s so befuddled by all the power at his fingertips that he just figures he can say anything he wants and call it a goal after he claims that he has achieved it.

Trump is reportedly considering a new goal as well: He is said to want regime change in Iran and may try to assassinate Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. He even told reporters last week that “it would be the best thing that could happen” if Khamenei is gone. Trump is apparently unaware that Khamenei oversees a theocratic regime with plenty of little-ayatollahs standing by, ready to step into Khamenei’s shoes. The entire Iranian government, from its military to its Supreme National Security Council to the elite Republican Guards to its judiciary and cabinet and even its legislature is controlled from the top by religious leaders loyal to Khamenei and his Islamic lieutenants.

It ain’t as easy as yanking Saddam out of his hidey-hole and puttin’ in a puppet government, which didn’t work in Iraq anyway.

When is Trump, or Secretary of War Cocktail Shaker or Stephen “grab that kid he’s getting away” Miller or Little Marco going to pick up a book – even a tattered old copy of the Encyclopedia Britannica – and familiarize themselves, even a little, with the idea that the Iranian civilization is one of the oldest in the world, along with that of the Tigris-Euphrates valley – read: Iraq – and the people who live there have this thing called pride in who they are and what their civilization has accomplished over the last, oh, let’s just say 6,000 fucking years, and so they might be a little perturbed at the idea that we’re going to come in there and tell them how to run things.

I don’t know what to call this inflamed idiocy. Historians will write it down to hubris, you can count on that, but even hubris doesn’t capture the abject ignorance and bloated egotism behind the idea that you can just push a whole bunch of buttons and launch bombers and missiles and drones and ships and bring the people who have inherited the ancient and honorable civilization of Persia to heel.

So, buckle up. He’s going to spend hundreds of billions of our tax dollars on his insane plans, and if we’re lucky…very very lucky…he won’t get a new crop of young Americans killed in the process.

Madness, I say. Madness. For us, and the rest of the world, just another day in the life of America under Donald Trump.

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DGA51
2 days ago
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Trump doesn’t do sand and mud. He deploys only weapons systems with air-conditioning.
Central Pennsyltucky
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The Wrong Way To Deal With Anxiety

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We live in an age of anxious, even fearful, students. And a pair of authors argue that accommodating their anxiety only makes things worse.

Ben Lovett (Psychology professor at Columbia) and Alex Jordan (private practice and Harvard med school) are the authors of Overcoming Test Anxiety. I only just came across an op-ed they wrote last fall, but it really rings a bell.

Here's the set-up:
Jacob is terrified of oral reports he’s expected to give in his 10th-grade history class this school year. A therapist’s note recommends he be excused, and the school agrees. This scenario is playing out nationwide. The individuals and institutions involved are well intentioned and trying to help students feel more comfortable. But as psychologists who’ve studied and treated anxiety for decades, we believe that this approach — eliminating whatever makes students nervous — is making the problem worse. Here’s
why: Anxiety feeds on avoidance.

Anxiety and fear, particularly among young humans, are fed by a debilitating combo-- the belief that 1) the scary things is truly dangerous, so dangerous that 2) you can't possibly handle it.

I've written about this many times before. Students are still trying to grow coping mechanisms for Scary Things, and they are surrounded by adults who may or may not having very good coping mechanisms of their own. Choices for coping with scary, anxiety-inducing things include:

1) Perform a set of behaviors that will magically keep the Scary Thing at bay. This one is popular among adults, and the problem is that in this model, the scary thing is always right outside, just waiting to get you, and you have to keep performing your keep-it-at-bay activities forever. I'm convinced that much of what we're living through right now is a man (and some like-minded sycophants) frantically pursuing the belief that if he acquires enough wealth and fame and power, he doesn't have to be afraid of dying. No human has ever pursued this tactic so fiercely or extensively, and there is a lesson for all of us in the fact that despite the success of his pursuit, it clearly hasn't assuaged his fear in the slightest. 

2) Denial and avoidance. The Scary Thing isn't real, isn't happening, isn't a threat. You aren't really here. You will run away and therefor avoid it. You can't lose if you don't play. This is every student who is suddenly too sick to deliver their oral report. It's not really coping so much as delaying. Worse, it reinforces the notion that the Scary Things is too devastating and you are too weak to deal with it.

3) Strength. You are strong-- specifically, strong enough to cope with the Scary Thing. Even if you don't beat it (and by God, you might), you will still be okay afterwards. You might even get stronger by wrestling with it.

2 is the strategy that the authors are talking about, and I agree. Every time we give a student a way to avoid the Scary Thing, we reinforce the idea that it really is a threat, and they really aren't strong enough to cope. 

By contrast, when students take on what they’d rather avoid, they learn that worst-case scenarios rarely materialize, that discomfort is survivable, and that anxiety diminishes with practice.

As is always the case in education, there's a lot to balance here. Getting students to face the Scary Thing can mean they need a kick in the ass combined with a forcible closure of all escape routes, or it can mean that they need to have their hand held as they are coaxed and reassured to go forward. It almost always means prepping them for the Scary Thing so that they have the tools they need. 

It also means that teachers have to be thoughtful about how they handle failure in a classroom, in things both big and small. Through most of my career, I tried to respond to everything from wrong answers to a question in class to bombed assessments with a message, somehow, of "That's not what we want, but you are still okay." Students, particularly younger ones, are susceptible to the message that failing at school is proof that they are sorry excuses for a human being-- in other words, they are too weak and too incompetent to face the Scary Thing which is, in fact, a Big Scary test of their worth as a human being. 

Of course, as a teacher, you have to switch gears with a student who doesn't seem to experience any anxiety at all, and of course you have to try to assess whether the student is actually out of !#@%s to give or if that's just a defensive pose (see 2 above). 

Some teachers, it must be said, tend to make mountains out of molehills ("If I have to talk to you one more time it will go on your permanent record and you will never get into college or get a job ever!") which can feed some students' dramatic sense that they are engaged in an epic struggle with apocalyptic forces. This is not helpful.

The messages that students need to hear are--

1) You can do this.

2) If you don't manage it the first, or even the second time, you will be okay.

3) I am here to help you get better at doing this.

They need to hear these messages from teachers and parents and other adults as well. 

They can also, Lovett and Jordan point out, be taught explicitly about anxiety-- what it is, where it comes from, how people deal with it, and how it is a feeling that doesn't necessarily reflect reality. I suspect they could also stand to hear tales of anxiety from adults; sometimes, young humans feed their anxiety with the assumption that everyone else, adults especially, has everything completely under control and therefor there must be something wrong with the young human who does not. 

Adults might also just generally stop pushing the idea that it is a big scary world, that we are all balanced on the edge of disaster, and that young humans are particularly in danger (and incapable of dealing with that danger). 

Schools do not have to be anxiety farms, and teachers do not have to feed the idea that students face Scary Things that those students can't possible deal with or survive. We can believe in our students (and if you teach in one place for a long time, you will see the evidence as they grow and thrive and weather adversity), and we can let that belief color how we treat them. We are all of us stronger than we sometimes imagine; all we have to do is grasp that strength for ourselves and those around us. 

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DGA51
3 days ago
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Central Pennsyltucky
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Imperia: A European Culture Story, Part 1

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Just north of the Alps, on the border between Germany and Switzerland, lies beautiful Lake Constance. And on the northwest shore of the lake is the lovely small city of Constance, Germany.

Constance is well worth a visit. A lot of German cities have rather bland or unattractive centers, thanks to the American and British air forces. But Constance escaped these attentions entirely, because the Allies didn’t want to risk any bombs landing in neutral Switzerland. So Constance has an unusually intact Old Town with lots of interesting old buildings, some going right back to medieval times.

Constance also has this:

Die Imperia, rotierendes Wahrzeichen von Konstanz am Bodensee und beliebte Touristenattraktion, hat bei ihrer Aufstellung im Jahr 1993 erhebliches Aufsehen erregt. (SKF)

A nine meter tall, 18 ton statue of a medieval sex worker.  She’s down at the harbor, on the lake.  She rotates once every four minutes.  Her name is Imperia.

You may reasonably ask, what?  And part of the answer is, she’s memorializing the Council of Constance, the great political-religious council that happened here 600-some years ago, from 1414 to 1417.  And you may ask again, what?

I’ll try to explain.  

Constance

Lake Constance gets its modern name from the city of Constance.  And the city of Constance is named after Constantius, a fourth century Roman emperor.

Constantius Chlorus - Alchetron, The Free Social Encyclopedia
[probably this guy, though it might have been his grandson.  it was the 4th century, stuff got confused.]

Back in the first century AD, the Romans pushed up through the Alps into what’s now southern Germany. They brought peace to the region via their traditional mix of mass murder, ethnic cleansing, and forced Romanization.  They seem to have built a bridge at Constance — the lake tapers down to a narrow neck there.  And credit where it’s due: the Romans loved nothing better than building transport infrastructure.  Bridge going north, good Roman roads going south, inevitably a town sprang up.  Later, in the 4th century when the Empire was turtling up against the ever more aggressive barbarians, the trading town built walls.  It became a border fortress, and got a new Imperial name.

(You have to work a bit to find corners of Europe that haven’t been touched by someone’s empire.  Roman, Frankish, Byzantine, Holy Roman, Ottoman, Spanish, French, Russian, British, German… ruins and roads, castles and place names, borders and battlefields.  The continent is pock-marked with them like acne scars.)

The Romans eventually departed, but the bridge and the town seem to have survived.  Certainly both were still there a thousand years later, when the Catholic Church convened a General Council there in 1414.

So is Imperia about the Roman Empire, then? 

No, not at all.  Well… not directly.

Three Popes, One Council

“And if a man consider the original of this great ecclesiastical dominion, he will easily perceive that the papacy is no other than the ghost of the deceased Roman Empire, sitting crowned upon the grave thereof: for so did the papacy start up on a sudden out of the ruins of that heathen power.”   — Thomas Hobbes, Leviathan

For a while, back in the 14th century, there were two rival Popes.  Each had his own Papal court and hierarchy, each was doing all sorts of Papal things — collecting religious dues, appointing Bishops and Cardinals, excommunicating heretics — and each was recognized by about half of Europe.  This was generally agreed to be a bad situation!  So there were several attempts to fix this problem.  They all failed, and one went so spectacularly wrong that it produced a third Pope, recognized by another couple of European countries.

At this point pretty much everyone agreed that something drastic had to be done.  So a General Council of the Church was called, with implicit power to sit in judgment on all three rival Popes.  Italy was problematic for a bunch of reasons, France was in the middle of the Hundred Years War — 

Kenneth Branagh Henry V
[Branagh or Olivier?  discuss.]

— so after some discussion it was decided to convene the Council in the small neutral city of Constance, which if nothing else was centrally located.

In Conference Decided

“A conference is a gathering of people who singly can do nothing but together can decide that nothing can be done.”  — Fred Allen

The Council of Constance is just so darn interesting.  

I’ll try not to chase too many rabbits, but here’s a thought.  In the early 15th century Europe was, in terms of global civilization, a backwater.   The Chinese were more technologically advanced, India was richer.  Asia was full of cities that were larger, cleaner, safer, and better designed than Europe’s grubby little burgs.  Heck, the contemporary Aztecs had a capital at Tenochtitlan that was bigger and nicer than anything in Europe,  and those guys were barely out of the Stone Age. 

Europe had nothing that the rest of the world particularly wanted  to buy, which meant that Europe had been running a trade deficit for literally centuries.  (This would lead to a serious economic crisis later in the century, as the continent nearly ran out of  gold and silver.)  Militarily, Europeans had been losing battles and wars to non-Europeans for a while, and this would continue for some time.  In particular, the Ottomans had just embarked on a long career of kicking Europe’s ass. Within a century, a huge chunk of the continent would be Ottoman provinces or tributaries. 

And yet.  Somewhere along the line, Europe went from “D-tier also-ran kind of lame civilization” to “planetary apex predator”. 

Why?  Why Europe? 

Some of the world’s smartest people have spent lifetimes of scholarship trying to answer that question.  Not for a moment will I imagine I can add anything useful to that great debate.  But here’s an offhand thought: there’s a short list of things that are, historically, unique or nearly unique to Europe.  One of those things? International conferences.  

The Berlin Congo Conference: Laying the ground rules for conquering Africa ( 1884) – Black Central Europe
[it doesn’t get much more European than this.]

This is probably because international conferences started as a particularly Christian thing.  The early Church was spread broadly but thinly across a politically united Roman Empire that had, for a premodern state, unusually excellent transport links.  (See earlier comment re: Romans and transport infrastructure.)  So it made sense to periodically come together: to keep doctrine and practice consistent, to resolve leadership disputes, and just generally to settle questions that couldn’t be worked out locally.  The great-grandfather of them all was the Council of Nicaea, back in 325 AD, which gave us the Nicene Creed.

The Man Who Became Santa: Who Was Saint Nicholas?
[BEGOTTEN NOT MADE HERETIC iykyk]

And there were lots more Councils, all through late Antiquity and the Middle Ages: Chalcedon, Constantinople, Lateran, Lyons.

But there’s a second line of mostly secular conferences called by Europeans to resolve international disputes: most typically to end a war, but often with a sidebar of “and let’s try to set up some sort of international order”.  And you can argue with a straight face that the Council of Constance is the takeoff point for this second line. 

Because Constance was a Church council, yes.  But it was also political in a way that previous medieval Councils hadn’t been.  It was attended by kings and dukes and counts, lawyers and professors and representatives of Imperial Free Cities — in fact, the lay attendees may have outnumbered the clerics.  It relied on the Emperor Sigismund to provide security and enforcement.  Its decisions required buy-in from the secular authorities.  Voting at the council was done by “nations” — groups of Churchmen, but sorted geographically by region within Europe.  And while Church reform and heresy were on the agenda, the overriding imperative was straight-up power politics: to resolve the Papal schism and settle the Church’s internal government.

So on one hand, Constance was just another in that long line of Church councils from Nicaea to Vatican II (1962-65).  But at the same time, it was arguably the first great multilateral peace conference.  Lodi, Westphalia, Vienna, Versailles, Yalta: Europeans have been holding these conferences for a long time.  There’s a direct line from Constance to the G-20.

— No, I’m not claiming that international conferences are what made Europe special.  I’m just noting that these secular peace-and-international-order councils really get going in the 15th century, right around the time that Europe begins its slow ascent out of mediocrity.   Almost certainly a coincidence!  Still: interesting.

Deliverables

So the Council of Constance had three declared goals, plus one goal that was undeclared but universally recognized. 

The declared goals were:

1)  Fix the whole three Popes thing.
2) Deal with heresy.  Specifically, deal with Jan Hus, who was the beta version of Martin Luther, and his followers.  The Hussites had basically taken over one European country already, and were threatening to spread.
3)  Reform the Church, which everyone agreed was spectacularly corrupt, and doing a pretty terrible job of providing spiritual guidance and moral leadership to Catholic Europe.  (This was cross-wired with (2) because the Hussites were claiming to be, not heretics, but reformers.)

The undeclared goal was

4) By asserting the superiority of a Church Council over Popes, convert the Catholic Church from an absolute monarchy to a constitutional monarchy. 

Nobody was publicly saying this was the plan, but this was totally the plan.  There had been a bunch of bad Popes already.  It was clear that giving that much power to anyone was a dubious idea to begin with, and that this was made worse by a selection process that favored ruthless conniving corrupt SOBs. 

Getting rid of the Papacy was unthinkable, of course.  But regular Church Councils to keep the Popes in check?  That seemed entirely doable.

Key Performance Indicators

They succeeded at (1) and failed at the other three. 

They did burn poor Jan Hus.  It’s a sad story and I won’t go into the details.  TLDR, they burned him, but the Hussites took over Bohemia anyway — the modern Czech Republic, more or less — and stayed in power there for over a century.  The secular rulers around them did manage to contain the Hussite heresy and keep it from spreading, but that wasn’t because of anything the Council did.

But the really consequential failures were that they utterly failed to reform the Church and they didn’t curb the powers of the Papacy.  The Church would remain horrifically corrupt, and the Popes would remain autocratic — and all too often greedy, cruel, and completely uninterested in providing spiritual or moral leadership.

It would take nearly another century for these particular chickens to come home.  But the eventual, inevitable result was the Protestant Reformation.

Ninety Five Theses
[hammer time]

By failing to fix the system, the attendees of the Council guaranteed that the system would eventually explode. 

But, really, how could they do otherwise?  Cardinals and bishops and abbots, counts and dukes and kings, priests and professors… they were all products of the system, and they were all benefiting from it.  

Somewhere, Imperia is smiling.  We’ll get back to Imperia.

One fled, one dead, one sleeping in a golden bed

So what happened to those three Popes, anyway?

Well: John, the Neapolitan Pope, was a pretty sketchy character even by the low standards of late medieval Popes.  Among other things — many, many other things — he was plausibly suspected of having poisoned his predecessor.  So the Council offered him a deal: resign, and we won’t open an investigation into these accusations.  Since an investigation would lead to a trial, and a trial would lead to a conviction, Pope John agreed and stepped down.  

But then!  John slipped out of Constance — disguised as a postman, some say.  He fled to the castle of a friendly noble, un-resigned, and declared the Council dissolved.

The Council wasn’t having it.  The Holy Roman (German) Emperor summoned an army to besiege the castle. John fled again, but the Emperor’s forces followed.  Eventually he was caught and dragged back to Constance, where they did put him on trial, and convicted him too.  He spent several years in comfortable but secure confinement.  He was allowed out once it was clear that he would behave himself, i.e. not try to be Pope any more.  

Now, one of John’s few accomplishments as Pope was choosing the Medici of Florence as his bankers.  Did you ever wonder why the Medici were such a big deal?  It’s because they were the bankers for the Papacy for almost a century.  Immense sums of money flowed into Rome from all over Europe.  All of it passed through Medici hands at some point, and of course the bankers took their cut. 

And, credit to the Medici, they used at least some of that money to become some of the greatest patrons of art that the world has ever known.  Michelangelo, Botticelli, the Duomo, Donatello, the Sistine Chapel… all that happened because of bad Pope John.

The Creation Of Adam Wallpapers - Wallpaper Cave
[“Award of a Sole Source Contract for Financial Services”, fresco, c. 1509]

When the disgraced ex-Pope eventually died, the reigning Pope didn’t want to give him a burial in Rome.  So the grateful Medici whisked John’s body off to Florence, where they gave him a nine-day funeral.  Then they built him a nice little tomb.  It was eight meters tall, marble and gilt, with Corinthian columns and a bronze effigy — you know, the usual — designed by Medici client artists Donatello and Michelozzo.   It’s still there in Florence today.

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[phrases rarely found together: “Medici” and “tasteful understatement”]

Gregory, the Venetian Pope?  He cut a deal.  He agreed to resign if (1) the Council subsequently acknowledged that he had been the One True Pope all along, so that his rivals were declared schismatic antipopes, and also (2) he got a unique one-time title of “Second Most Important And Holy Guy In The Church, After The Pope”.  The Council decided this was cheap at the price, and agreed. 

So Gregory is still counted by the Catholic Church as an official Pope.  (Which means he was the last official Pope to resign the office until Benedict XVI’s abdication in 2013, five hundred and ninety-seven years later.)

Pope Gregory XII - Wikipedia
[he even got to keep the hat]

Benedict, the Spanish Pope?  He refused to resign.  But the Council went to work on the remaining countries and monarchs who were supporting him, and talked them around.  So Benedict ended up abandoned by most of his supporters.  He died a few years later, mule-stubborn to the end, isolated and mostly ignored.

That time they elected the Pope in a shopping mall

Once the Council had eliminated or sidelined the three Popes, they needed to choose a new one.  For this, they used a unique, one-time-only system of voting. Council attendees gathered into geographic “Nations”, each nation picked six guys to represent them, those six guys cast one vote.  This was an attempt to put a new, Council-based system of Pope selection in place, since the existing College of Cardinals process kept throwing up Popes who were scheming evil bastards.  

It didn’t take.  The next Papal election took place when there was no Council, so they went right back to the College of Cardinals.

Conclave movie review and analysis: Inside the Oscar-winning Vatican ...
[and they’ve kept it ever since]

But they also had the problem of where to hold the election.  Because traditionally, Papal electors are isolated, cut off from outside influences until they decide.  So they needed a building that was large, but that could be sealed off, but also handed over to the electors for some indefinite period of time. As it turned out, medieval Constance had exactly one building that fit the requirements:  the town Kaufhaus.

Today the word “Kaufhaus” gets translated as “department store”.  But the Constance Kaufhaus was a combination warehouse and retail center.  Foreign merchants kept and sold premium goods there.  It was a big building full of little shops selling luxury items.  Literally, a high-end shopping mall.

Still, needs must.  And credit to the electors: they managed to reach a consensus and elect a Pope who was, if not brilliant, at least not an incompetent, a criminal, or a monster.  Pope Martin V would rule for 13 years and while he wouldn’t do much that was memorable, neither would he poison his enemies, appoint a bunch of nephews and bastard sons to high office, run the Church into bankruptcy, or otherwise disgrace the office.  

Of course, this goes to a deep structural problem.  The Council chose a kindly mediocrity because they were afraid that a strong Pope would claw power back from Councils.  (Which is exactly what happened, a Pope or two later.)  But the Church desperately needed reform, which a kindly mediocrity couldn’t possibly deliver.  

Also, the College of Cardinals absolutely hated the idea of anyone else being involved in electing the Pope. Partly this was a status issue.  Partly it was about ambition — most Popes came out of the College, after all.  (Still true.)  But most of all, it was about cold hard cash.  Would-be Popes were often willing to pay immense bribes in order to buy votes.  Kings and Dukes would throw in more bribes to support or oppose a particular candidate.  Banks and wealthy families would coolly lend money to finance these bribes, since backing a winning Pope could mean an instant flow of massive wealth. 

This is, of course, how the Medici became the Papal bankers.  It was they who funded the election of bad Pope John in the first place.  


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[Allegory of a Papal Election, c. 1480.  the winged figures represent the Medici, scattering flowers (money) as they blow the candidate to the shores of success.  the handmaiden (the Church) is about to clothe her in a robe decorated with flowers (even more money).  the candidate gazes into the middle distance, seemingly unaware.]

So reforming the electoral process would not only have been a hit to the Cardinals’ status, it would also have drastically curtailed their future income.  It’s no surprise that they weren’t enthusiastic about the new system, and abandoned it as soon as they could.

Somewhere, Imperia is still smiling.  We’ll get back to Imperia.

Everybody goes home

The Council wrapped up in 1418.  Joan of Arc would have been in first grade, if medieval French peasant girls went to first grade, which they didn’t.  She was about 10 years away from starting her brief incredible career as the savior of France.  Johannes Gutenberg was a freshman at the University of Erfurt.  He was about twenty years away from inventing the printing press. Over in England, a handsome young Welshman named Owen Tudor was hanging around the court of King Henry V.  In a few years, King Henry would die of dysentery.  His widowed Queen would marry handsome Owen.  Their grandson would be the first Tudor king of England, and their descendants are sitting on the British throne today. 

Jan van Eyck was in his twenties, just getting started on his career as a painter.

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[weird mirrors were already a thing]

And down in Portugal — a kingdom small and obscure even by medieval European standards, out on the far edge of the continent — Prince Henry the Navigator was forming an ambitious plan.  Portugal, like the rest of Europe, was running out of gold.  But there was gold down in Africa… somewhere.  It came north regularly, after all, in caravans across the Sahara.  The trade was controlled by Islamic middlemen, who took a hefty cut. 

But what if Portuguese ships could work their way down along the African coast?  They might find the source of the gold… and who knows what else?

Epic World History: Portuguese in Africa
[just getting started]

And that’s the story of the Council of Constance.

But wait, you ask.   What about Imperia?

Yes, well… this post got a little out of hand.  But Imperia is not forgotten!  Modern Constance has a nine meter, 18 ton concrete statue of a medieval sex worker that rotates every four minutes, and there’s a reason for that.  We’ll get to her story shortly.

Because she is most certainly still smiling.

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DGA51
3 days ago
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They brought peace to the region via their traditional mix of mass murder, ethnic cleansing, and forced Romanization.  
Central Pennsyltucky
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The US state has proved itself dispensable

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Not long after Trump took office, I observed that the status of the US as the “indispensable nation” could not be sustained. A year later, the US, considered strictly as a state actor, is already dispensable and has, in fact, been largely dispensed with, by Europe in particular. The standing ovation given to Rubio in Munich recently (made almost unavoidable when his retinue jumped to their feet in Stalinesque fashion) should not obscure the fact that almost no one interpreted it as anything more than a politer restatement of Vance’s tirade a year ago. At that time, Europe needed to keep Trump on-side to prevent a sudden collapse in support for Ukraine and to avoid an all-out trade war.

None of that is particularly relevant now. Europe (include Ukraine) has held Russia to a standstill for a year despite the complete cessation of US military aid. The US is still relevant as an arms exporter and as a patchy supporter of sanctions against Russia, but that’s about it. Trump has turned his attention to his desire to rule the Americas from Nunavut to Tierra del Fuego, as well as returning to the forever wars of the Middle East.

US discussions of European military dependence commonly assume that independence requires the attributes of a superpower: global reach, expeditionary capacity, and a highly centralised state authority. But Europe does not need to replicate a superpower model. It needs only sufficient political cohesion and integrated military capability to deny territorial aggression on its own continent. In that sense, the relevant model is a Greater Switzerland: coordinated and capable enough for credible defence, without aspiring to global hegemony and without transforming itself into a unitary — or even fully federal — state.

Measured against this objective, Europe has already surpassed the US. Ukraine alone has more troops, hardened by years of war, than the US, and Europe as a whole many more. Europe’s armaments industry, much derided in the early years of the war, is now churning out munitions (particularly artillery shells and drones) at a capacity far greater than that of the US. There are gaps, notably in missile defence, but these are being closed quite rapidly.

Against this, arguments for continued dependence on the US commonly focus on logistics, command-and-control, and ISR (intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance). These arguments sound impressive, but collapse on closer investigation.

Logistics is the clearest example. Before Trump, analysis of a possible war with Russia assumed a massive lift of US forces to Europe for which only the US had any capacity. But it’s clear that this won’t happen. Europe will have to fend (almost) entirely for itself. The resulting logistics problems are immense, but they all involve land transport within Europe – bridges that can’t support the weight of tanks for example.

In fact, the dependence now goes the other way. The global force projection capacity of the US depend critically on bases in Europe like Rammstein, not to mention the UK-leased Diego Garcia. Until recently, a loss of US access to these bases was unthinkable. But it would be a low-cost path to retaliation in the event of an occupation of Greenland.

The same points apply to command-and-control. The US military is central to NATO and would be crucial in the (now improbable) event of a war between NATO and Russia. But in the actual war between Ukraine/Europe and Russia, it’s irrelevant. At the operational level, Ukraine is in charge of its own military. At the logistical level, it’s increasingly integrated with Europe.

Finally, there is ISR. Most of the work these days is being done by drones, which have made concealment nearly impossible anywhere near the front lines. US military satellites play a role, but it’s less important than it was. The most important US player is not the state but Elon Musk’s Starlink, which is gradually being challenged by European alternatives.

Then there is “intelligence” in the sense of analysis, where the US is arguably worse than useless. The US intelligence system scored a win at the beginning of the war by correctly predicting the Russian invasion, but it was right for the wrong reasons, expecting an easy Russian win. Because of the dominance of superpower thinking, the US has routinely overestimated Russia.

This can be seen in the remorselessly pessimistic reporting of the New York Times, which (not surprisingly) reflects the advice it is getting from US intelligence officials. The NYT first announced the imminent fall of Pokrovsk (a relatively unimportant city in Eastern Ukraine) as a likely consequence of Ukraine’s incursion into Kursk in 2024. The latest announcement, accompanied by a concession that Russian progress had been slower than expected, was a week ago. Perhaps they will be right this time. But anyone who had read consistent NYT reports of Russian advances for the past three years, without checking the map, would have been anticipating T-72s on the Champs-Elysees by now. These reports are clearly guiding the thinking (to describe it kindly) of the Trump Administration, and reflected in the advice given to Ukraine.

That’s the military side of things. As far as dispensing with the US role in global society is concerned, Trump is doing the work himself. USAid has been gutted, with catastrophic consequences . The US just withdrew from dozens of international organisations , and is sowing chaos in others

The big steps here, with respect to the UN, World Bank and IMF, have not yet been taken But even if Trump does not make the first move, the continued location of these institutions in the US can’t be sustained. With the US out of most UN organisations, UN presence in New York is likely to shrink to the provision of a meeting place for the Security Council and General Assembly, and even that role is threatened by travel restrictions. Their buildings can presumably be taken over by Trump’s Board of Peace. A similar process will play out as Trump attempts to direct the lending policies of the World Bank and IMF

The big force for inertia is the idea that Trump will be gone in 2029. That seems increasingly unlikely, but unless Trumpism is completely defeated, the process will continue with the next Republican administration. A complete defeat of Trumpism would require a massive constitutional upheaval in the US, which would entail a need to focus almost entirely on domestic problems.

The US state may already be dispensable, but the same is not true of the US role in technology and finance. Conflict in these areas is only just starting, but will be intense. More soon I hope.

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DGA51
3 days ago
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These reports are clearly guiding the thinking (to describe it kindly) of the Trump Administration,
Central Pennsyltucky
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