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Trump has declared war on an American city

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Still from an ICE shooting this morning in Minneapolis. This is horrific.

There are reports online that a man was shot multiple times by ICE agents and has died. The man was on the ground and surrounded by armed agents when he was shot. ICE has flooded the area with agents. They are deploying pepper spray and tear gas indiscriminately. Photos from Minneapolis look like a war zone, not an American city on a Saturday afternoon.

Does this look like a street in the United States on a cold day in January?

Minnesota Sues to Stop ICE 'Invasion' | WIRED
LIVE UPDATES: Federal agents kill man in Minneapolis, protesters tear  gassed - Bring Me The News

We need a nation-wide uprising to protest this outrageous, out of control war against American citizens. Only a week or so ago, Trump was warning Iran to stop killing protesters. Who is going to tell Trump that he has to stop using these masked thugs they’re calling “federal agents” to kill people in the street. Yesterday, they were arresting five-year-old children and using them as hostages. Today, they have their guns drawn and they are shooting at people in the streets of Minneapolis.

We have to find some way to help.

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DGA51
3 hours ago
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Central Pennsyltucky
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Weekend Rewind: No Forgiveness For Nazis Edition

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There is a growing awareness in America that the usual “let’s move on for the good of the nation” ploy to let racist white men off the hook for their evil isn’t going to cut it this time. They’ve crossed too many red lines for us to forgive and forget. There has to be a reckoning. Our job is to bear witness, so when the time comes, all of their sins will be exposed and then carved into their skin forever.

That means it’s time to catch up on all of last week’s news! Grab your knife and sharpen that blade. We have a lot of carving to do…


Monday: The regime is recruiting the weakest of the weak.


Tuesday and Wednesday: abandoned me this week, leaving me all alone to write all of the notes for this week’s podcast. Woe is me!


Busy day on Thursday. First: Podcast!


Also Thursday: Livestream with nerds, a doctor, and a bachelor!


Finally: MAGA, go back to where you came from. You’re not welcome here anymore.


Friday: What happens when all the guardrails don’t collapse, after all?


5 Things I found Interesting This Week

  1. How Christian Nationalists Turn Every Carrot into a Spiritual Stick - The traps behind paying people to choose WCN-approved marriage and children by Andra Watkins at For Such A Time As This

  2. Minneapolis shows us the only way out - This year will decide the rest of our lives. And the people will decide it. by LOLGOP at The Cause

  3. Leaked Doc: Homeland Security’s Domestic Terror Obsession - Forget Greenland; the American public are the real target by Ken Klippenstein

  4. What the Trump Administration Is Buying With CBS’s Reputation - The administration’s story about the Renee Good shooting was falling apart. CBS gave them the credibility to put it back together. by Parker Molloy at The Present Age

  5. Trump Is Building a Political Police Force in Plain Sight - In ICE, Trump is Building a Private Army by Rachel "The Doc" Bitecofer at The Cycle

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DGA51
6 hours ago
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Central Pennsyltucky
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He's losing

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Where I sit tonight -- probably the same place as a lot of you right now -- is in the path of the largest winter storm in years. Tracy and I spent the afternoon getting ready. We already went to the supermarket yesterday, so what we were left with was making sure our backup battery power supply is charged and the generator is ready to go. That meant finding the little connection thing to charge the Jackery battery and looking for our collection of extension cords we can run from it, and from the generator outside, to the stuff we’ll want to be able to keep on if the power goes out – the fridge, the wifi router, the TV, and a couple of lamps.

I was toiling away in the room at the back of the house we use for cat boxes and cat feeding and keeping-stuff-we’re-waiting-to-put-away, and I was thinking of what to write at the end of this out of control week, the out of control month that’s about to come to an end, hell, the extraordinarily out of control year we have – so far – survived, when it came to me:

He’s losing.

He’s “losing it,” as the saying goes. He is more and more visibly disconnected from the reality the rest of us, and the rest of the world, live in. They can still shoot him up with something that is not vitamin B and wheel him out in front of the public and the press and turn him loose to babble the lies that make him so happy to repeat over and over – he won the 2020 election that he lost; the prices of things like electricity and food and drugs and health care that everyone else knows are going up, he thinks are going down 400 or a thousand percent or whatever number he’s got stuck in his mind; he’s the greatest president ever, greater even than Washington and Lincoln; and on and on. But it’s not working, and he knows it, and his people know it.

He’s losing his health. A new purple wound bloomed on his hand in Davos that they tried to explain away by saying he hit his hand “on a table.” What? There weren’t enough hands to shake in Davos, so they couldn’t explain it away using that lie, or maybe nobody would shake his hand. Who knows. Something is seriously wrong with him. It’s what his narcolepsy is all about. He couldn’t keep his eyes open if they paraded a bevy of topless teenagers in front of him, he’s on the nod so often and so deeply. The thing about dragging the leg comes and goes, but if I were to guess, I’d say one of the reasons they’re rushing to complete the gold-plated jet from Qatar they say will be ready “by summer” is that they’re installing some sort of elevator he can use to get into the thing.

He’s losing supporters. Three or four polls are out telling the tale of his crash in popularity with the 18 to 30-year-olds. Even those who flipped from Biden to him in 2024, think he stinks, with 65 percent in one poll and 69 percent in others disapproving of the way he’s doing his job. He’s so crazed over his tanking poll numbers that he wants to make it a crime to run polls that say his numbers are falling.

He’s losing Republicans in the House and Senate. How many have said they’re resigning now? I lost count at 40. They’re looking at the losses they’re going to face in the midterms and bailing at record levels.

He’s going to lose the midterms. Everybody knows it. James Carville thinks it’s going to be a blowout. Charlie Cook was just dragged kicking and screaming into admitting control of the Senate is likely to go to the Democrats. The White House announced this week that Trump will be traveling to support Republicans for the midterms once a week between now and next fall. That means rallies. Remember the last one, in the Poconos, when they couldn’t fill a casino convention room and had to wall off a smaller space with big curtains? Just wait: His rally tour is going to turn into the Big Search for the Smallest Event Space So It Will Look the Fullest.

He’s losing it with ICE. The violence and cruelty of his thousands of new barely-trained masked thugs is coming through in spades in Minneapolis. That city is showing what can be done to oppose these modern-day Brownshirts and turn the tide of public opinion against them. His polling on immigration is tanking. CNN ran a poll that found 52 percent find Trump “has gone too far” on immigration. New York Times/Sienna found 61 percent say he has “gone too far” on immigration and customs enforcement. That number included 70 percent of independents. Other polls have had similar results. That whooshing sound you hear isn’t the icy wind bringing the Big Winter Storm. It’s the sound of Trump’s immigration policies flushing down his golden toilet. And these polls were taken before the photo of the five-year-old boy in the knit hat with bunny ears and a Spiderman backpack hit the airwaves. The picture is already being described as “iconic” in the way it shows the inhumanity of Trump’s immigration policy. That’s the hand of an ICE agent holding the boy by his backpack.

ICE detains five-year-old Minnesota boy arriving home, say school officials  | Minnesota | The Guardian
Photo: The Guardian

He’s losing it internationally. The kidnapping of Maduro was a big fat bust. He’s leaving the same authoritarian regime in place in Venezuela. None of the Big Three oil companies want to touch Venezuela’s stinky, thick, hard-to-drill-for oil. No major countries want to join his toy U.N. “Board of Peace.” I mean, really – Hungary, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kosovo, Mongolia, Morocco, Pakistan, Paraguay, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, the United Arab Emirates, Uzbekistan? It’s like a club for wannabe dictators hoping if they please the utterly unpleasable Trump that some crumbs will fall to the table from the Big Mac he’s stuffing in his mouth. Embarrassing. Ridiculous. Absurd. A plaything for Trump’s ever-expanding ego. Europe is gone for him. Not even his pal Putin will listen to his pleadings about stopping the war in Ukraine so he can get another pretend peace prize.

He’s losing it with Wall Street and Banks. That’s what his incredibly rapid shift into reverse on Greenland was all about. The money-boys took a hit to their bottom lines and punched speed-dial for Trump and told him if he wanted to keep the crooked crypto pay-offs coming, he had to finesse a Greenland agreement and drop the threats of new European tariffs, and presto! After screaming for months that he “needs” Greenland for “national defense” and that you “can’t defend a piece of paper,” Trump’s big new deal on Greenland turns out to be a slight expansion of the 1951 treaty signed between the U.S. and Denmark as a – get this – “implementation of the North Atlantic Treaty.” That’s Trump’s bugaboo, NATO, of course. There is new language about “total access” and some filigrees and bows and it will probably be written on stationery in gold leaf lettering, but it’s “old wine in a new bottle,” according to a former NATO official quoted by Politico.

In the end, he is losing because taken together, what has resulted from all his big authoritarian moves is that he looks weak. Panic is setting in. There aren’t enough needles and “not vitamin B” in the world to keep this staggering act going.

That’s not to say he isn’t dangerous. He is. He’s still surrounded by wannabe Nazis like Stephen Miller, and he’s still listening – on the sly now, I suspect – to tech Nazis like Elon Musk. He’s still got a hand puppet running the Pentagon and his hand on a pen that can sign the bloody Insurrection Act any time he takes a mind to. He wants some form of what he thinks is martial law, and if I were to guess, he’s going to try it and end up being knocked back by the courts.

But he’s fading, and he’s fading fast. He is not invincible. Republicans will be heavily damaged in the midterms. If they lose the House and the Senate, Trump’s last two years will be empty theater. He won’t be able to pass a single law. He won’t be able to make a single appointment. He won’t get any new judges on Courts of Appeals. He won’t get any new U.S. Attorneys. Should a Supreme Court vacancy come up, it will stay vacant until 2029, and a Democrat will be in the White House.

He won’t just be a lame duck. His presidency will be a dead letter.

Good luck if you’re in the path of the storm. It will help me out if you support this newsletter with a paid subscription, and I will really appreciate it.

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DGA51
8 hours ago
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Needing extension cords to connect critical infrastructure to a backup generator? Get a Generact and use it to supply those circuits.
Central Pennsyltucky
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A very short post about heroin voice

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This was triggered by a post over at our long-term friendly-rival blog, LGM. That post, in turn, was triggered by something stupid that Robert F. Kennedy Jr. said recently.

What Kennedy said: he thinks his distinctive hoarse, raspy voice is “spasmodic dysphonia”, which he suspects may have been caused by taking flu vaccines for years.  Because dysphonia is a KNOWN side effect of these dangerous vaccines!  So he stopped getting flu shots back in 2005.

Blogger Shakezula quite correctly deconstructs this nonsense (only one flu shot lists dysphonia as a possible side effect, and that one wasn’t available until after 2005; if dysphonia is a side effect, it’s ridiculously rare, and nobody seems to have ever encountered it).  But then they make a wrong turn:  they suggest that maybe RFK’s weird voice is genetic, because his sister also has a kinda weird voice.

No.  No no no.  

There’s a thing called “heroin voice”.  And yes, it’s an actual thing — go ahead and google it.  There are papers.

TLDR: long-term heroin use can permanently damage your voice.  It doesn’t always happen, but it’s definitely a real and well-known risk.  Long-term junkies and ex-junkies often have a distinctive hoarse, raspy voice.  In rare, severe cases the user may need speech rehabilitation.  More often, they just have a weird voice.  And they may keep that weird voice for the rest of their life, because in most cases the damage seems to be irreversible.

Now on one hand this is a slightly niche topic.  If you’ve never spent much time around junkies, there’s no reason to know about heroin voice.  But on the other hand it’s not exactly a deep obscure secret.  “Raspy voice” is regularly listed as one of the warning signs of heroin abuse.  It’s right up there with pinprick pupils, pallor, reduced appetite, and a marked preference for long-sleeved shirts.

“RFK Jr. used to be a junkie” isn’t a secret either.  He’s admitted to several years of heroin addiction: basically, “It was the Eighties, man”.  I would bet a modest amount of money that he used heroin both more and longer than he’s now willing to admit, but whatever.  It’s relevant to his current position, not because he used to be an addict — there’s no shame in that — but because he grew into one of those ex-addicts who believe, that since they Triumphed Over Addiction through some combination of Clean Living and Personal Awesomeness, they’re now uniquely entitled to tell the rest of us how to behave.  If you’ve ever spent much time around twelve-step programs, you’ll know the type — mercifully rare, but instantly familiar.

Anyway!  RFK Jr. doesn’t have a weird voice because of vaccines.  And it’s not genetic either.  It’s heroin voice.   He has a weird voice because he used to be a junkie.

And that’s all.


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DGA51
9 hours ago
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RFK jr gots it.
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More vaccine shenanigans

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YES I AM ALIVE AND I AM BACK. Whether I'll continue to write after this is anyone's guess. This shit is exhausting.

Aaaaaaaanyway...

Every so often, more reliably than my pager waking me at 1AM to take care of yet another idiot who thought that driving without a seatbelt while drunk was a good idea, the same claims crawl out of the murky depths of the internet swamp and into real life. These idiotic claims, which have been corrected, recorrected, re-recorrected, and re-re-recorrected ad nauseam, are inevitably delivered with great confidence by someone who has never read a protocol for a clinical trial, let alone evaluated safety data. And yes, I’m talking again...yet again...about vaccines. Since it’s been quite a while (5 years? Really??) since writing about vaccines (or anything, I suppose), I thought I’d dredge the topic from the mire, mainly to mollify my own stupid obsession with demonstrating that antivaxxers are not just wrong, but dangerously wrong. But you already knew that. 

Unless, of course, you’re an antivaxxer. And if you are, please do the entire world’s population a favour and get completely and entirely fucked. 

Sorry. Moving on.

The first stupid claim I’m constantly seeing bandied about these days is "No vaccine has ever been tested against a saline placebo”. And the second is "Vaccine trials are rushed and way too short”. Both are impressive wrong, and yet they persist like idiots who just can't conceive that women can be physicians or men can be nurses. This is just how medical misinformation works. It continues to make the rounds, truth be damned. 

So let's get this underway, shall we?

I'll start with the saline placebo nonsense, because it’s the loudest, dumbest, and most easily disproved, today, at least. There will be other stupid claims to refute later. The idea that vaccines have never been compared to saline placebo is simply false. Let’s start with these studies, which ALL used saline placebos:

There you go. Is that every vaccine ever? No, but I never claimed that every vaccine ever developed was tested against saline placebo. Now if you’re someone who has ever made the "saline placebo" claim, you’ve now been proven demonstrably wrong, and I expect you’ll never feel the need to make such a wrong (and stupid) claim ever again. Right? RIGHT? And if you’re a rational human being who enjoys engaging with antivaxxers and proving them wrong, now you have a nice handy list to use. You’re welcome. 

Now if I know how antivaxxers think, and I do, they'll move the goalpost to the equally stupid (and wrong), “But vaccines have never been studied against an unvaccinated control group!” (yes, a BONUS CLAIM!), which is a stupid argument for two reasons: 1) yes they have, and 2) you don’t understand why this is an unethical study design. But then again you don’t really seem to understand anything. Anyway, there have been many studies where some subjects got the real vaccine and some got nothing. No placebo, no "other vaccine", just nothing. The largest (and arguably most famous) is the 1954 Poliomyelitis Vaccine Field Trial, where over 1.8 million children were studied. About 440,000 children received active polio vaccine, about 210,000 children got a placebo (which was not saline but was essentially the vaccine components minus the active ingredient), and 1.2 million children received neither. And guess what was found? Well, considering that you’ve never met anyone who’s had polio (unless you’re over age 75), I think you know. And yes, it was found to be safe. Shocking.

There are other vaccines that have been studied with an unvaccinated control group: 

Now that I’ve put those issues thoroughly to bed, you antivaxxers will probably shift the goalpost again to “But some of those are newer studies! But newer vaccines are compared to older vaccines! But the full vaccine schedule has never been studied! I want what I want now!” Fortunately, biomedical research ethics has evolved significantly over the past several decades, and the studies that you want (like a fully unvaccinated cohort vs a vaccinated cohort) are not ethical. I have neither the time nor inclination to delve into a full biomedical ethics dissertation, so let me offer you a scenario instead: 

Let’s just say that some unethical researcher offers you and your neighbours (who, unlike you, are well informed and vaccinate their children) exactly the study you’re yammering about – a double blind, saline placebo-controlled study of the full vaccine study. Keep in mind that “double blind” means neither the researcher nor you knows which arm your child will be in, and you do not get to choose. Half the children will receive all the vaccines, and half will receive none. Did I mention that you do not get to choose? Now think for one second. No, keep thinking. Are you done? Good. Now that you've tasked your brain, ask yourself this very simple question: Would you be willing to sign your children up for this study knowing there is a 50% chance they would be in the active arm and get the full vaccine schedule? HAHA no of course you wouldn't, because you think vaccines are poisons. And now ask yourself, would your neighbours be willing to roll the dice, knowing there’s a 50% chance their child would be left unprotected against over a dozen deadly and/or debilitating diseases? FUCK NO, of course we wouldn't. We all (even you) care about our children and want what's best for them.

Fortunately for all of you, this study will never be done, because it is not ethical to withhold a vaccine that is known to work just to quell your stupid obsession (or shut you up, which would be nice). That’s not a conspiracy, it’s basic research ethics. We don’t randomise people to “nothing” when “something” is already known to save lives. We stopped doing that after learning a few hard lessons from unscrupulous researchers last century. Seriously, get with the times. 

Now on to the “Vaccine trials are too short!” claim, which is usually made in the same breath as the previous one. Yes, pre-marketing trials happen over months to years (not days, as I've seen claimed too). That’s because vaccines aren’t magic potions that lurk silently in the background, quietly waiting in your arm for a decade before pouncing. The overwhelming majority of serious adverse events, including life-threatening ones like Guillain-Barré syndrome and anaphylaxis, occur hours to days after study drug administration. Rarely weeks, and even more rarely months. This is in no way a mystery. Vaccines aren’t new – we’ve been studying them for decades and keeping meticulous records like the boring, obsessive professionals we are (and you aren't). It is known.

Long-term safety isn’t ignored either, like you like to pretend. Post-marketing surveillance exists precisely because no trial can ever be large enough to catch everything. Millions of doses, real-world data, and ongoing monitoring just don’t fit neatly into a meme, so you ignore it. But the people who actually care about this (and do it for a living) don't. 

What really grinds my gears is the implication that everyone involved is either incompetent or lying (or your favourite insult: a SHILL). Thousands of clinicians, statisticians, regulators, and researchers across multiple countries on every continent over the entire globe, over decades, would all supposedly need to miss the same obvious flaws that Susan With WiFi And An iPhone spotted between episodes of Stranger Things or whatever conspiracy video she happens to be watching. 

In trauma we have a saying: common things happen commonly. Rare, delayed, mysterious effects are – you guess it – rare. And surveillance systems are in place to catch them. We adjust when evidence demands it, like when the 2009 H1N1 flu vaccine was found to cause narcolepsy in some people. That seriously sucked, but it's another piece of evidence that the system works. It’s messy but cautious, and it’s relentlessly dull compared to the thrill of a good conspiracy. 

The real problem isn’t that people ask questions. Questions are absolutely fine, even healthy and necessary. Without questions, Edward Jenner would never have wondered why milkmaids who had previously gotten cowpox didn't get smallpox, he would never have invented the first vaccine, and we all would have died of smallpox (not really, but a fuckload of people would have). The problem is when the same bad questions get recycled endlessly, long after the answers have been found (but curiously ignored), because outrage spreads better and faster than explanation. Comfortable lies are easier to accept than uncomfortable truths. And once someone decides the entire medical system is corrupt, no amount of data will ever be enough. The goalposts just keep moving. 

So that’s why I’m here, yet again, explaining the same damned thing I’ve explained to antivaxxers repeatedly. At this point I don’t even know whom to blame. Bobby Kennedy, maybe? Probably. But seriously, the entirety of mankind’s knowledge is literally at your fingertips at all times (assuming you keep your phone plastered to your body 24/7 like I do), so maybe try learning something once in a while instead of just yelling. I’m not saying to trust me, because if you’re an antivaxxer, you don’t. I acknowledge that. But if you’re going to distrust medicine, at least get your facts straight first instead of repeating the same tired bullshit like it’s some kind of revelation. You haven’t discovered anything that thousands of researchers (real ones, not you) have missed.

You're not a researcher. You just have internet access.
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DGA51
23 hours ago
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Vaccines aren’t new – we’ve been studying them for decades and keeping meticulous records like the boring, obsessive professionals we are (and you aren't). It is known.
Central Pennsyltucky
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The Sexual Politics of ICE

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ICE, I have written before, has become the personal paramilitary of an authoritarian despot, staffed up by men who are attracted to white supremacist propaganda and who probably couldn’t hack it in the military or traditional law enforcement. But ICE is also a profoundly macho and misogynist force, part of the kind of antifeminist crackdown that is prototypical of authoritarian regimes.

I spoke with Jessica Yellin of News Not Noise about ICE and misogyny, and I hope you’ll watch and listen to our discussion — I will send it around as soon as it is published (she really is so excellent, please also subscribe to her Substack and follow her on social media if you don’t already). And I thought I’d expand on our conversation here.

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ICE Recruits Fragile, Angry, and Insecure Men

The first thing to understand is that ICE recruitment is aimed at men who want to feel powerful, who want to bond with other men by committing social acts of violence, and who are drawn in by Nazi slogans. Also: Men with daddy issues. Here’s one ICE propaganda poster, promising heavily-armed father-son bonding (and, I guess, something for bored Fox-News-pilled old men to do):

And here’s another, encouraging men to fantasize about bonding with their “absolute boys” by grabbing people off the street and stuffing them into 1980s-style econovans, the kinds of vehicles associated with kidnappers, rapists, and child molesters:

The Department of Homeland Security, the president, and the vice president regularly post heavily edited videos of ICE raids, often set to high-energy music, that feature agents kitted out in tactical gear as if they’re going into combat, invading peoples’ homes and hauling brown and black people out in handcuffs. What the videos don’t tend to show: The lack of actual criminals being apprehended, or the US citizens being wrongfully arrested, or the human beings being brutalized, killed, or sent to foreign torture prisons with no due process. ICE agents have killed several people, with Renee Good only being the most prominent. Many people in ICE custody have died, with at least one of those deaths being ruled a homicide. Journalist Judd Legum recently found that ICE is not paying for detainees medical treatment — a policy that will almost certainly mean that detainees do not get medical treatment when they need it. That kind of medical neglect will no doubt kill people, and denying medical care so that detainees perish has been a signature move of some of the worst genocidal regimes in human history (Anne Frank died not in the gas chambers but of untreated typhus in Bergen-Belsen).

Men whose masculinity is fragile may be more prone to violence — they are more likely to interpret disagreement as disrespect, and to see disrespect as a challenge to their status. Men who feel that their masculinity is being compromised are more likely to act out with physical aggression — and “your masculinity has been compromised” was a major talking point during the Trump campaign. In its recruitment ads, ICE promises masculine restoration. In other words, ICE is a force of men who have felt small and have now been empowered by an administration that tells them they’re manliest of men, hands them guns and tactical gear, gives them precious little training, explicitly tells them they will be held to virtually no legal or moral standards, and sets them loose on a public it has warned is full of not just criminal illegal immigrants, but un-American subhumans, among the worst of whom are AWFULs: Affluent White Female Urban Liberals.

Of course these small, insecure, and incompetent men brutalize the people they’ve been told are domestic terrorists — including women.

Trads or Terrorists

The second thing to understand about this moment, and particularly about why the supposedly gender-traditionalist right has shrugged off men shooting women in the face, men dragging women around by their hair, and men otherwise brutalizing women and children, is that the Trumpian right very much divides women into two categories: “Good” women who obey, and bad ones who don’t. And they are very much obsessed with forcing all women into obedience.

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DGA51
1 day ago
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