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So-called "peace deal" already falling apart

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The Witkoff-negotiated “peace deal” is now being reported as not a U.S. thing at all. A post on X tonight from Senator Mike Rounds, Republican of South Dakota, appears to be evidence of the Trump administration shifting quickly into reverse after the blowback from Europe and U.S. politicians to the absurd sell-out “deal” Trump was pushing.

From Rounds on X: “@SecRubio did make a phone call to us this afternoon. I think he made it very clear to us that we are the recipients of a proposal that was delivered to one of our representatives. It is not our recommendation, it is not our peace plan. It is a proposal that was received. And as an intermediary, we have made arrangements to share it. And we did not release it. It was leaked. It was not released by our members or our representatives... This is an opportunity to receive it and that it has been utilized and delivered to the Ukrainians, and that they will have an opportunity to respond. And in doing so, you now have one side being presented and the opportunity for the other side to respond.”

With his reference to “a phone call to us,” Rounds appears to be referring to a call with Republican senators, since the Trump administration is not exactly known for keeping Democrats in the loop. Rubio’s sudden reversal appears to be an attempt to quiet Republican opposition to the Trump “deal.”

But even that isn’t clear. The situation is changing by the moment. A friend with excellent contacts in both Ukraine and U.S. diplomatic circles just sent me a message saying that Rubio has now tweeted that “the plan was drafted by the US with input from Ukraine and Russia.”

Did Witkoff negotiate it with Dmitriev, or was the plan handed by Russia to the U.S.? Rubio told the senators, the plan was “delivered to the Ukrainians, and that they will have an opportunity to respond.” So, which is it? Does anyone know?

The whole thing sounds like a typical Trump cobbled-together total clusterfuck at this point. Stay tuned. By midnight, they might be pushing the line that Little Green Men threw the thing down from a hovering UFO.

Trump is off the golf course in Mar a Lago and probably chowing down on bad overcooked burgers. Anything can happen. I’ll be on the story as it develops. Please support my work, by becoming a paid subscriber.

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DGA51
4 hours ago
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That didn't take long.
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Trump's so-called peace deal: It's an unmitigated, out in the open, in broad daylight slobbering kiss on Putin's ass

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The “peace deal” isn’t a ceasefire. It isn’t an armistice. It is a complete capitulation to every fever-dream demand Vladimir Putin has made whenever ending his war has ever been discussed. As written, it is worse than whatever “deal” he and Trump allegedly discussed at their meeting in Alaska, which apparently disturbed Trump enough that he ended the meeting before it was scheduled to close.

Ukraine wasn’t even consulted. The proposed deal as reported by Anne Applebaum in The Atlantic, “was negotiated by Steve Witkoff, a real-estate developer with no historical, geographical, or cultural knowledge of Russia or Ukraine, and Kirill Dmitriev, who heads Russia’s sovereign-wealth fund and spends most of his time making business deals.” That would be Trump’s real estate buddy, with whom he has other deals involving crypto, including the $2 billion investment by Dubai in what is referred to as the “Trump-Witkoff stablecoin,” which for those who haven’t been paying close attention to the topsy-turvy-but-generally-Ponzi world of crypto is neither a “coin” nor “stable.” Putin’s “negotiator,” like anyone associated with him in Russia at this time, can best be described as a killer.

So, a Trump buddy and a killer for Putin. That sounds fair.

The deal would allow Putin to keep all the land in Ukraine he has taken waging war by murdering civilians and burying them in mass-graves, sending rockets and armed drones into Ukrainian population centers almost nightly. Russian air attacks have killed thousands of Ukrainian civilians and destroyed hospitals, schools, churches, apartment buildings, shopping malls, streets, businesses, factories and other civilian infrastructure – all of which amounts to war crimes for which Putin has been charged, and for which, under terms of the deal, he will not face prosecution at the International Court of Justice.

The deal would require Ukraine to cede to Russia the 12 percent of the Donbas – the regions of Luhansk and Donetsk – that Russia has been fighting for, but has not captured. These lands unoccupied by Russia are rich in coal, iron, and the kinds of precious metals necessary for advanced batteries and microchip production.

So, that would reward Russia with land it has not even seized, and from which it would be free to build up militarily for some future attack to seize the rest of Ukraine and launch a war on Europe.

According to the New York Times, the deal was “drafted with no input from the Ukrainians, the European allies or the Congress.” So, one might ask, just who had input in negotiating the deal? Well, Trump’s gofer and Putin’s killer, that’s who.

Under terms of the deal, Ukraine would be required to rewrite its constitution to include a clause forbidding the country from ever joining NATO. Ukraine must agree to limit its military to 600,000 troops, a reduction from its current level of 900,000; it would be forbidden to possess any long range missiles capable of striking Russia. Since to strike Russia, all Ukraine would have to do is fire a missile a few miles over the border, that would seem to include such short-range missiles as the HIMARS missiles that have been supplied by the United States, and other defensive missiles that European nations have provided. Ukraine would also be compelled to hold elections within 100 days of the deal’s signing. This demand, negotiated by Capitulator in Chief Witkoff, has been made by a country in which Putin has outlawed competitor political parties, jailed and killed his political opponents, and not held a legitimate and free election for more than 20 years.

Applebaum reports that “Awkward wording, evident throughout the document, suggests that at least some of it was originally written in Russian.” Oh, boy, couldn’t have guessed that, huh?

Here is where we get our hint of what the real deal is behind the “peace deal” Trump wants to foist on Ukraine. The U.S. would be required to help “reintegrate” Russia into the world economy. What does that mean? Well, the U.S. would be required to lift all economic sanctions on Russia and agree to Russia’s readmission to the G8. The $100 billion in frozen Russian assets, most of which is held by European banks, would be returned to Russia, supposedly under the control of the United States, which would “invest” this money in Ukraine. In return, the U.S. would get “50 percent of the profits from this venture.” What would the Europeans get, who have been supplying weapons and other aid to Ukraine for three long years? The “peace deal” requires European nations, unnamed but presumably including those in the European Union, to “invest” $100 billion in the reconstruction of Ukraine. Under whose supervision would that reconstruction take place? That isn’t specified, but in the more than one-fifth of Ukraine occupied by Russia, which the rest of the world would be required to recognize as Russian territory, I would just bet that Russia would be in control of all those hundreds of billions that would be devoted to “reconstruction.”

And what would Russia be required to do in return? Nada. Zip. Zero. Nothing.

According to Applebaum in The Atlantic, Trump’s gofer Witkoff did his duty in making certain that Donald Trump profited from his “peace deal.” According to the wording of the deal, the U.S. and Russia would “enter into a long-term economic cooperation agreement for mutual development in the areas of energy, natural resources, infrastructure, artificial intelligence, data centers, rare earth metal extraction projects in the Arctic, and other mutually beneficial corporate opportunities.”

What are the details of these agreements that would clearly benefit Donald Trump and whichever business-buddies he chooses to include in the flood of profits? There are no details. As Applebaum reports, “the business negotiations carried out by Witkoff and Dmitriev remain secret.”

Oh, boy, we couldn’t have guessed that.

So, who is left out of the mega-exploitation of Ukraine’s resources and all the deals cut by Trump and Russia? Well, that would be every single country in Europe that has been helping Ukraine fight the Russians for three years. They get nothing from Trump and Putin.

In fact, all Europe gets is a strengthened Russia that upon the signing of the “peace deal,” would be free to rearm and start moving even more troops and materiel into the Ukrainian lands it has occupied in preparation for whatever conquest Vladimir Putin wants to order next.

When the U.S. defeated the Nazis in World War II, Germany was disarmed and forbidden from building a new military force that would threaten Europe and the rest of the world. Under the Trump-Putin “peace deal,” Ukraine would be hindered from rearming to defend the rest of its territory, but Russia would be rewarded for its aggression and murder by being permitted to do anything it wants militarily with all the money and resources that are freed-up by the lifting of sanctions and the involvement of Russia in brand new deals with Trump-picked cronies to develop resources and build new AI plants, factories to extract and use rare earth metals, and all the U.S. oil technology necessary to drill for oil in Russia’s deep North, where the lack of that technology has hampered Russian oil exploration for decades.

It is not known what Zelenskyy will agree to between now and the Thanksgiving deadline Trump has set for the deal to be agreed to by Ukraine – there being no question that Russia will agree to the terms of the deal, since it appears that Putin’s killer negotiator was the one who wrote the fucking thing.

Trump was asked by reporters yesterday what would happen if Ukraine did not agree to the terms of his “peace deal.” Here is his response: “He’ll have to like it and if he doesn’t like it then, you know, they should just keep fighting.” Trump was also asked if the U.S. would continue to support Ukraine if Zelenskyy doesn’t agree to the “peace deal.”

“At some point, he’s going to have to accept something,” Trump replied.

Trump has his nose shoved so far up Putin’s ass, it’s amazing he can see enough to play golf. The question is, why? This week, we got at least part of our answer: Trump’s “peace deal” will make him and his family and his gang of American oligarchs much, much more wealthy. That’s why he ran for the presidency, after all, to enrich himself and his family and his friends. That he will be enriching himself at the cost of Ukrainian lives doesn’t matter to him. What matters to Donald Trump is money, and there is plenty of it to be had if he can force Zelenskyy to sign a “peace deal” that will not guarantee him and Ukraine any peace at all.

It’s tiring to write about Trump’s immoral scams and crimes, but I’m going to keep doing it as long as it’s necessary. To support my work on this column, please consider becoming a paid subscriber.

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DGA51
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So, one might ask, just who had input in negotiating the deal? Well, Trump’s gofer and Putin’s killer, that’s who.
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The Bill of Rights for soldiers

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What you have to understand about the military is that it functions as a nearly absolute autocracy within the democracy that governs the rest of the country. There are many rights that you simply don’t have if you are in the Army, Navy, Air Force, Marines, or Coast Guard. You don’t have the right to go to bed when you please. If your commander says “lights out” at 11 p.m., that means lights in the barracks are turned off. If your commander says no personal electronic devices like cell phones while on duty, then you can’t look at or even carry a cell phone while you’re working.

Most famously, if a commander says reveille is at 5 a.m., that’s when the bugle blows and your feet must hit the floor. You don’t get to sleep in if you had a long night and you’re tired. Orders are orders. Get up and get moving, soldier!

In war, the window of a soldier’s rights narrows considerably. If you are ordered by a platoon leader to dig a hole and get in it and defend the perimeter of the unit’s position, you must get your entrenching tool – a small shovel – dig your hole, use it for cover, and engage the enemy if your platoon’s position is attacked. If you’re ordered to charge a position held by the enemy and shoot to kill, you are obligated under the UCMJ, the Uniform Code of Military Justice, to follow an order that may cause you to take the life of another human being.

The UCMJ is a code of laws that governs the behavior of members of the military while they are on active duty, defining behavior that is allowable and what is not permitted and outlining punishments for violating military regulations and the laws of the UCMJ itself.

The UCMJ cuts both ways, however. Included in the military code of justice is the law that says members of the military have a duty to obey all lawful orders, but they also have a duty not to obey orders that are illegal, unconstitutional, or otherwise criminal in nature. A common example of an illegal order that soldiers have a duty not to follow is being ordered to mistreat or kill a prisoner of war. Being ordered to mistreat or hurt or haze or kill another soldier would be similarly illegal, and service members would be obligated not to follow such an order.

The reason this issue has arisen is because six members of Congress who are either military veterans or served in national security positions such as the CIA released a video on Tuesday urging service members on active duty, in the reserve, or the National Guard not to follow illegal orders. The members of Congress did not specify which illegal orders that military members must refuse to obey. Instead, they made the point that the Trump administration is pitting the military against the American public on the streets of this country with its military deployments to cities, in violation of the Constitution, according to some recent court decisions.

Reports noted that some National Guard soldiers deployed to cities such as Washington D.C. and Memphis are armed, raising the possibility that soldiers may at some point be ordered to shoot protesters or others. Some reports included the fact that the military has been engaged in rocketing and sinking boats that are alleged by the Trump administration to be smuggling drugs to the United States. Some experts in military and international law have held that the attacks on boats in the Caribbean and Pacific Ocean are illegal under the laws of the sea and international laws regarding armed conflicts. The Pentagon responded to this criticism with a legal opinion that the attacks on alleged “drug boats” are legal in that President Trump has declared them to be “narco-terrorists” engaged in an attack on the U.S. by shipping deadly drugs to our shores.

Trump flew into a nearly incoherent rage on Thursday calling the members of Congress in the video “traitors” who are engaging in “sedition” and “should be put to death” or “hanged.”

I’ll just note here for the record that what the members of Congress said in the video was a distillation of what is written in the UCMJ about the duty of soldiers and other members of the military to refuse illegal orders. So, Donald Trump was calling for members of Congress to be put to death for not only following the law but insisting on the obligation of members of the military to follow the law, as well.

The part of the UCMJ that obligates members of the military to refuse illegal orders is their Bill of Rights. Soldiers don’t have a right to refuse orders that are stupid, such as being ordered to pick up trash in the hot sun of a summer day and make their beds to a certain and seemingly irrational standard or face punishment. But members of the military have not only the right, but the duty, to refuse to follow illegal orders such as those I have already discussed. Among them might be what Trump asked of the Pentagon Chief of Staff, General Mark Milley, about protesters outside the White House in the summer of 2020: “Can’t you just shoot them, just shoot them in the legs or something?”

Shooting unarmed protesters exercising their First Amendment right to petition the government for redress of grievances is illegal, so if Trump had framed his idea as an order rather than a question, that order would have been illegal. Framed as a suggestion, advocating shooting unarmed protesters could be seen as committing assault, a felony under civilian law, and I am certain is illegal under the UCMJ as well.

Donald Trump is the person committing illegal acts by suggesting that protesters be shot, or that members of Congress should be put to death. By declaring that presidential acts are perforce legal, the Supreme Court, in Trump v. United States, insulated Donald Trump and future presidents from prosecution for making statements or giving orders that would break laws that others, including the military, are compelled to follow.

Members of the military are given orders every day that verge on or are actually illegal. Superior commanders regularly tell subordinate commanders to punish individuals for doing things that are not illegal, or that are illegal but for which there is no evidence or due process of law. Subordinate commanders must then decide how willing they are to fight their superior officer over the illegal order by refusing to carry it out, knowing that the superior can easily torpedo their careers with a bad personnel report or a lie to their own superior officer about the disloyalty of the subordinate.

It is generally not a good idea, career-wise, to refuse illegal orders. It’s a better idea to find a way around them, which soldiers are often compelled to become expert at doing. But sometimes you don’t have a choice. An example from my own, very brief, Army career is when a superior officer told me to stop signing up members of my platoon who had families for food stamps. It was legal for soldiers to receive food stamps. They qualified because of their very low pay, which put many of them below the federal poverty line. I refused that order and continued to sign up my soldiers who needed food stamps to feed their families. This did not sit well with my commanding officer, who proceeded to give me a score of 69 out of a possible 100 on my “Officer Efficiency Report,” the measure by which promotions were decided. I was not promoted to First Lieutenant. Knowing there was no way for me to “win” the Catch 22 over the decision not to follow illegal orders, and under charges for other “crimes” I faced, I chose not to fight when administrative discharge proceedings were brought against me.

A lot of very bad water has passed under a lot of creaking, dangerous bridges since those days. Two wars, Vietnam and Iraq, were ordered illegally based on lies. The war in Afghanistan was ordered legitimately but fought in frequently illegitimate ways for 20 very long years.

And now we have a president who never served in the military, who avoided serving by lying about “bone spurs” to get out of the draft, signing executive orders that are often illegal and ordering the illegal firing of those who question his orders.

This country has seen worse, but not for a very, very long time: The Civil War began 165 years ago, and we survived that national disaster. We will survive this one, too, but not without casualties on battlefields at home and abroad. The way you beat a tyrant is standing up to his tyranny. Six members of Congress gave us an example of exactly that on Tuesday. Each of them is under special guard by Capitol Police because of threats to their lives by MAGA followers of Donald Trump.

We will stand with them and fight against tyranny with them, and there is a lot of fighting we must do with our votes and our bodies.

No Kings Forever!

It’s hard for me to believe I’m having to write a column in opposition to a president calling for the death by hanging of members of Congress. But that is where we are. To support my column and our fight against tyranny, please consider becoming a paid subscriber.

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DGA51
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The Liberal Education Reckoning

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I am the proud product of excellent K-12 public education. I am a liberal who wants to pay teachers more, who supporters teachers’ unions, who will always vote to raise my own taxes to give more money to public schools, who opposes efforts to redirect public funds to private religious academies, who thinks education has to be broader than just multiplication tables and spelling tests.

And I’m stunned at just how badly people who share my politics have screwed up public education for American kids — and how urgent it is to reckon with the bad outcomes of our good intentions, and quickly change course.

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In New York magazine, Andrew Rice has a must-read piece looking at his own town of Montclair, NJ, which has one of the best-funded public school systems in the nation and yet has seen steep downturns in student outcomes, especially for Black students. In The Atlantic, Rose Horowitch writes about the stunning decline in math abilities among college students, many of whom — even at competitive colleges — cannot complete problems suited for eighth graders. In The New York Times, psychology professor Jean Twenge writes about plummeting standardized test scores and identifies the ubiquitous in-class laptop as a culprit. On Twitter, organizational psychologist Adam Grant shared a new study finding that, per Grant’s summary, “students learn more and get better grades after taking notes by hand than typing. It’s not just because they’re less distracted—writing enables deeper processing and more images.”

There is no single cause of the educational backsliding we’ve seen over the past decade. And Covid school closures certainly accelerated existing negative trends. But Covid also contributed to polarization in even agreeing that there’s a problem to be solved. It is clear, in hindsight, that closing schools was disastrous for students; but it was not clear, in the moment, that the potential learning losses for students were more of a risk than the potential loss of life and health for the masses, including sick and elderly family members living with young children. The Covid divides, though, have poisoned the education conversation. At this point, there is nothing we can do about the fact that many schools closed and many students suffered from it — and some people’s lives were also probably saved. It would be far more useful to look at the whole picture of what went wrong — what was going wrong before Covid, and which terrible ideas Covid made widespread — so that we can learn from our mistakes and improve the situation for American kids.

Liberals really have been America’s strongest advocates for public education, and America’s public education system really is an incredible achievement. But if we want to keep it strong — if we want to make it stronger — then we need to see where we’ve gone wrong, and work quickly to right it.

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Step one: Get screens, including laptops, out of the classroom.

This doesn’t mean “no computers ever.” But as Grant points out, when students take notes on laptops instead of with pen and paper, they don’t retain nearly as much information. It’s also the case that we don’t retain nearly as much information when we read it on a screen versus on paper (sorry to all of you, I wish I could mail you a printed version of this newsletter). If we want young people to retain what they’re being taught, one of the best things we can do is get them back on paper for most of their day.

Getting students off of screens is also necessary if we want them to even hear what’s being taught. I am currently sitting in a cafe writing this newsletter, which is both my job and something I enjoy and have chosen to do, and I have clicked away to scroll through Twitter, check my email, WhatsApp a friend, read the front page of various websites, and otherwise distract myself approximately 5,693 times. And I am an adult with a fully-developed frontal cortex. Ask yourself: When was the last time you sat with a computer in front of you and only focused on your single task at hand? Is that your normal way of working? If adults can’t do this, how in the world do we expect kids to do it — and why are we plunking distraction machines in front of them all day long? With a laptop in front of their faces in the classroom, students scroll through social media and watch YouTube; in one study, a quarter of teens said they’d used their class laptops to watch porn. College students may be more mature, but they aren’t much better: Twenge cites a study finding that they spend roughly 40% of their in-class time screwing around on the internet instead of focusing on the material at hand. The obvious ensues: “The more time college students spent doing something else on their laptops during class, the lower their exam scores, even after accounting for academic ability,” Twenge writes.

This is a Covid holdover. The pandemic pushed students to learn at home, online, and through screens. That was disastrous. And yet for some reason, while we’ve grasped that we have to get kids back in the classroom, we’ve kept the screens in front of their faces.

Laptops are also now substituting for school-issued textbooks, which means that kids are bringing these distraction devices home and can, under the guise of doing homework, enjoy virtually unlimited screen time. Papers written on them are increasingly penned by ChatGPT.

The school-issued Chromebook may have seemed like a good idea, a way to equalize internet and computer access for public school kids, including those whose parents don’t have the resources to buy them a computer. But a funny thing has happened: Educated, affluent parents are increasingly forcing their kids off of screens, delaying screen access as long as possible, enrolling young kids in screen-free schools, organizing to delay giving kids their first smartphones, and limiting screen time for older children. Poorer families are more screen-dependent. Poorer kids spend more time on screens.

This is not to say that children should never see a computer. There are reasonable ways to teach crucial modern-world skills — typing, online research — without moving the whole of education online. Giving students time to type out papers, for example, on school computers disconnected from the internet supports learning and skill-building rather than diminishing it. Screens are a part of life. But in school, they should be a part of it — not dominating it.

Who wins here? Not kids or parents or teachers, but the tech companies who supply not only the laptops, but the millions upon millions of dollars of software that public schools now depend on. Laptops in the classroom have not increased “equity.” They’ve contributed to widening racial achievement gaps.

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Step two: Raise expectations.

I am a woman of childbearing age, and so I see tons of social media content about raising children. As far as I can tell, American parents are very concerned about raising kids who are (1) resilient and (2) not entitled. But our educational system has increasingly treated kids with, well, kid gloves, and demanded that educators cater to their desires. It’s good that schools are considering students’ feelings and wellbeing. But in trying to keep kids from being discouraged in school and in trying to decrease racial and socioeconomic inequalities among students, we may have instead sent the message that we don’t expect students to work hard — that we don’t trust that they can do well. We don’t teach them to experience setbacks and persevere through them.

We also see education as a consumer product, and parents are among the worst offenders there, routinely complaining to deans if their adult children — college students — don’t get the As to which their parents believe they are entitled. And that of course starts well before university, with parents “advocating” for their kids to get higher grades as early as elementary school. Teachers, of course, don’t want to feel like they’re depriving students of future opportunities. They also aren’t paid enough to fend off invective from angry and entitled parents.

As a result, students are learning less but getting pushed forward anyway. As actual student abilities have gone down, graduation rates have gone up. So have grades. Some 60 percent of grades awarded at Harvard are now As, according to a grade inflation report from the university; twenty years ago, it was 25 percent.

“I can’t reach my maximum level of enjoyment just learning the material because I’m so anxious about the midterm, so anxious about the papers, and because I know it’s so harshly graded,” one Harvard student told the student newspaper. “If that standard is raised even more, it’s unrealistic to assume that people will enjoy their classes.”

One key to managing anxiety is not avoiding it; it’s learning, through practice and failure and eventual success, that you actually can do hard things and that disappointment is a normal part of life. The answer to pervasive mental health issues among young people is not to confirm their fears that they can’t do what’s being asked of them or that perfection is the only acceptable outcome; it’s to show them that they can face their fears head-on, and that they’re resourceful enough to succeed — if they put in the effort and have the necessary support systems. Learning, frankly, is not always enjoyable. It shouldn’t be miserable either, but wiring your brain in new and better ways can be painful and difficult. That’s part of what makes it so good.

Raising expectations also means offering more-academically-inclined students opportunities to be challenged in the classroom. I know this makes me a big outlier among progressives, but gifted and talented programs are actually good, as are AP and other advanced classes. It is really hard for teachers to effectively teach to students who are several grade levels apart in skill, and the obvious outcome is that the lowest-performing students are left behind while the highest-performing ones are bored. We should probably re-name them (“gifted and talented” is… a lot). We should absolutely take steps to change the status quo in which a child from an affluent family is twice as likely to be funneled into a gifted and talented program as an identically-performing child from a poorer one. But if in pursuing “equity” we’re actually simply imposing universal mediocrity, that’s bad.

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Step three: Evaluate well and fill in resources where most needed.

A lot of the current politically moderate critics of America’s educational demise point to the end of No Child Left Behind and its testing requirements as the moment things started to turn bad. I think it’s definitely more complicated than that, and No Child Left Behind had more than its fair share of problems. But we do need a more comprehensive way to assess student learning, and a thoughtful system to dedicate additional resources where they are most needed. That doesn’t need to look like over-testing, teaching to the tests, and punishing schools that do badly. It does mean giving ourselves the tools to identify problems, and the resources to help solve them.

It also means resisting the urge to forgo data collection because you might not like what you find. In the heady period in 2020 when so many Americans and American institutions were grappling yet again with our country’s racism and pervasive inequality, several elite colleges and universities decided to drop SAT scores from their application requirements. The idea was that SAT scores are pretty unequal, with affluent white students typically doing the best, and they don’t necessarily measure any individual student’s potential (they do, in fact, tend to be pretty good at predicting how well a student will do in college and if they’ll graduate). But with pervasive grade inflation, it’s awfully hard for colleges to really compare apples to apples when looking at SAT-free student applications. And the SAT can perhaps perversely be a real benefit for students from challenging backgrounds. They may not be able to afford the fancy test prep that richer kids get, but buying an SAT practice book is a lot more accessible. By contrast, the ability of a17-year-old to write an essay that intrigues and persuades a panel of university administrators that you deserve admission is a more sophisticated endeavor, one that cannot be studied for — it often involves pretty sophisticated parents, school counselors who are practiced at getting students into elite institutions, often private essay tutors and editors. A policy meant to help even the playing field seems to have only skewed it further.

We shouldn’t make a similar mistake with kids in the public K-12 education by sidestepping testing. Nor should we assume testing is the end-all be-all to education. It should be one diagnostic, not the whole plan.


To be clear, the conservative assault on public education is also a big part of this story. They have undermined public trust in the education system and undermined public education itself by fighting to push Christianity in schools and opposing teaching students things like widely agreed-upon scientific consensus. They have successfully taken public funds for secular education and channeled them into religious schools which have to meet virtually no standards at all. They have created a homeschooling scheme that broadly enables child abuse and neglect. As I write this, the Heritage Foundation’s Russell Vogt is and other extremists in the Trump administration are dismantling the Department of Education. American conservatives today are, in many ways, an anti-Enlightenment bunch. They have been the driving factor in America’s education problems.

But conservatives generally aren’t the ones reading this newsletter; liberals are. So if you’ve gotten this far, I want to hear from you. What here sounds right? What have I missed? What do American schools need, and what can turn things around for our kids?

xx Jill

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A Quick And Gentle Warning About The Economy

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The Opinionated Ogre newsletter is free and will remain so, but it takes time and effort to produce it. Please become a contributing supporter for just $5 a month or $50 a year.

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Prefer a one-time tip? We got you!

Soooo…things are going great. If by “great” I mean very badly and getting worse.

Look, I’m not an economist. I don’t even play one of TV. But after the 2008-2009 crash, it turns out there were several warning signs that were right out in the open that most people ignored. People like you and me ignored them because we didn’t know what they meant and/or didn’t know they were happening. The greedy rich fucks ignored them because they were making billions, and they knew they would get a nice, fat, juicy bailout from the government. The legacy press ignored them because this stuff is soooo wonky and booooring!

After all, there was a Republican president and we sure don’t like to deliver bad economic news when there’s a Republican president. Funny how that works.

So here are the three red flags the press has noted but not really made a fuss over:

If these loans are going sour, it’s a safe bet a lot of other kinds of loans are going sour, too, and the banks have a LOT of money invested in those loans. I wrote about this back in March. Wall Street is following the same greedy playbook that led to the Great Recession, but a thousand times dumber and more dangerous.

The fact that the press isn’t making a huge deal out of this tells us that they are protecting a Republican president. Again. These are the exact same kinds of warning signs that preceded the 2008-2009 crash, except they’re larger and more unstable. Somehow, these red flags are not being connected to a larger picture in anything but a general, “Gee, I hope something bad doesn’t happen” way.

Here’s where I remind you that for four years straight under Biden, the legacy press was Deeply Concerned the country was About To Enter A Recession. Not a month went by without multiple headlines “just asking questions” like “Are we in a recession?” or “Is America heading towards a recession?”

Now? Not that many headlines, and we are barreling towards an economic collapse our grandparents and great-grandparents would find both familiar and horrifying.

But just because they won’t talk about it, doesn’t mean it’s not happening.

Look, I’m not jumping up and down about this for funsies. Most of the country/the planet was blindsided by the Great Recession. Knowing it was coming wouldn’t have saved people’s homes or jobs, but it would have let them prepare for the fallout. The press had a duty to warn the public, and they didn’t, a duty they are failing to perform yet again.

Panicking and freezing won’t do you any good. You need to prepare for rough waters, and you still have time, although I honestly have no idea how much. It would be great if we had six months or a year. It would be awesome if the breakdown were gradual and not a sudden collapse. I feel like we’re not going to be that lucky. I’ve written about how to prepare for economic disaster before and I will again (after Thanksgiving). But for now, do not ignore those red flags just because the press is mostly overlooking them. They fucked us all once, don’t let them do it again.

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DGA51
1 day ago
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We have seen this before.
Central Pennsyltucky
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Trump's Impossible (And Potential Fatal) Choice

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🔥Burn Fascism To The Ground!🔥

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Donald Trump and his party of fascist shitweasels have a problem. Everyone hates them. Well, not EVERYONE. There’s always going to be enough inbred morons who will support Republicans no matter what to keep some of them in office. But it’s not looking good for next November:

Here’s where I remind you, yet again, that this deeply lopsided result is BEFORE we see pictures of Donald Trump raping a little girl.

  • Before the AI bubble collapses and the Great Depression takes second place in the “What’s the worst economic disaster America has ever faced?” category on trivia night.

  • Before inflation and unemployment spin out of control, bringing back stagflation for the first time in half a century.

  • Before Stephen Miller’s Gestapo is fully staffed up with literal Nazis and they start roaming the streets, an army of white nationalists with badges looking for victims to kidnap, rape, and murder.

  • Before millions lose access to healthcare from the trillion dollars stolen from Medicaid to pay for billionaire tax cuts.

  • Before millions lose SNAP because Republicans want hungry children.

All of this and more is coming in the next twelve months. Some of it may take longer to hit if we’re unbelievably lucky. Every day a disaster is delayed is lives saved, so it would be the best thing ever for me to be wrong. The more wrong, the better. This is not something you should bet on, though.

The slim silver lining is that all of this will fall on Republicans. And they know it. They know they are facing a historic wipeout next November, and they have a plan. The only plan with a chance of working:

Fresh off their staggering electoral losses this month, Republicans are urging President Donald Trump to start hitting the campaign trail for them next year with control of Congress on the line.

And in a sign of their rising anxiety over Democrats’ renewed enthusiasm, the requests for rallies have started rolling in.

It’s important to remember that in 2024, Republicans did not win the election. Trump did. The Republican Party did terrible everywhere. In an election where their presidential candidate won (allegedly), Republicans lost several Senate seats that should have been theirs for the taking. They retook the House, sure, but with a margin so small, one bad order of shrimp for lunch could knock enough House Republicans out to put Democrats in charge.

Voters do not like Republicans. If we’ve learned anything, they will not show up to vote unless Trump is on the ticket. Or, at least out in the field holding rallies to summon the faithful, something he did not do leading up to the off-year elections.

But why not? Trump LOVES to do rallies. He loves the adoration and attention and cheering, screaming masses of cult members. He hates actually being president and doing work (because he’s stupid and lazy). Why hasn’t he been running around the country, soaking in the worship of the masses?

Answer: Because rallies are physically and mentally draining, and Trump is very sick. Whatever is wrong with him is progressing quickly, and he can only sustain short bursts of energy when he’s speaking. And even that is frequently disjointed and confused gibberish.

That leaves Trump in an impossible position. Moo Hoo Ha Ha.

Here are his two options. Both leave him fucked and help us immensely.


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Trump Must Campaign

If Trump does not go out, they lose everything. The next twelve months are going to be unrelenting bad news, and all of it will be laid at the feet of the GOP. They will own all of it.

Democrats can be disorganized or they can be unified. It ultimately will not matter. The public will turn out to punish Republicans. The difference between Dems in Disarray and Dems Unified will be the scale of the slaughter. Will Republicans lose 30 seats in the House and 3 state legislatures? Or will they lose 40 seats and 6 states? Will Democrats retake the Senate with one seat or two? How many governors’ mansions will they pick up? Will there be a single Republican dog catcher left if they’re unified or will a few Republican mayors slip through Democratic disarray?

Without Trump, the difference will be Republican beaten with a baseball bat or with a spiked baseball bat.

Here’s where I remind you that the regime and the GOP MUST control Congress after the midterms. A hostile Congress, aka “One that upholds the rule of law,” will grind Project 2025 to a standstill. The courts have not been kind to the regime’s increasingly erratic, dishonest, and illegal behavior. Once a Democratic-controlled Congress sues to stop literally everything the regime is doing, the fascist plan to reshape America goes off the rails, and the clock starts to run out very VERY quickly.

Trump needs a compliant Congress or there will be no way to plausibly steal the 2028 election, and that’s the end of that.

Also, and this remains critical to the Republican agenda, if Clarence Thomas (77) and Samuel Alito (75) refuse to retire before Democrats take over, they risk dying or retiring with a Democratic president in office. A liberal Supreme Court ends the fascist plot with just a handful of rulings.

Trump must campaign next year. But can he? Not really.

Campaigning Will Kill Trump

Literally or figuratively, it won’t matter. Trump is 79. He will be 80 by the time campaign season really kicks in next summer. He can barely stay awake now. All the shitty makeup in the world can’t hide the weird sagging face and slouching limp.

The strain of even a moderate campaigning schedule will push Trump into real physical danger. To be clear, the people around him don’t give the tiniest of fucks about him as a person. Miller and Vance and Hegseth and the rest? They’re psychopaths, just like Trump, with a complete disregard for human life. Trump is entirely disposable, although his death before the midterms and so far from the 2028 election might be inconvenient for them. He really would be much more useful as a martyr struck down by an assassin,1 say, in the Spring or early Summer of 2028.

But let’s say Trump goes for it anyway. How’s that going to go? His mind is collapsing at an accelerating rate. Even before the pressure of the Epstein files sent him spiraling into wild, uncontrolled rages, Trump was barely coherent. After a week or two of stress and exhaustion, he won’t be campaigning; he’ll be a walking dementia commercial for assisted living facilities.

The press has spent a decade sanewashing Trump, but there’s a limit, and the more video there is of him rambling and babbling and spewing gibberish, the more damage he does to himself and his party. They’ll still lose the midterms, and Trump will have committed electoral suicide for the rest of his time in office.

He’s already being called a lame duck. After a year of incoherent fuckery on stage, they’ll be calling him a “dead duck.”

His own party is already starting to throw him under the bus and here’s an important bit of data we just learned - The base is leaving Trump as well:

“Trump recently called Greene a ‘traitor,’ withdrew his endorsement of her reelection and encouraged a primary challenge in 2026. But many Republican leaders and voters in Greene’s deep-red district say they are sticking with her, boosting her bid to carve out a populist MAGA brand independent of the president.”

I was super curious about that when the split developed. If Greene attracted a Trump-backed challenger and was pushed out, then Trump can still threaten and bully the rest of the party. But if the base stuck with Greene? Well, then, Trump isn’t the all-powerful overlord of the Republican Party, is he? And if Greene can tell him to fuck off, why does the rest of the House GOP have to debase themselves for a decrepit, dying pedophile?

My guess is that more Republicans will break with Trump now because they see a path away from his radioactive wreckage. A GOP civil war before an election is not exactly a recipe for victory.

So even if Trump survives physically, he won’t survive politically.

He HAS to campaign or he loses everything. But campaigning guarantees Trump loses everything. Gosh darn! What’s a fascist piece of shit to do?!

I know what you and I are going to do, of course. We’re going to keep all the pressure on all the time. The Nazi fucksticks are cracking, and when your enemy buckles, you punch them even harder. Desperate animals make stupid mistakes, and we want them panicked and stupid. It won’t be easy, and it will not be fun. A lot of people are going to be hurt before this is over, but it WILL be over, and it’s up to us to make sure that happens.

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Fascism hates organized protests. They fear the public. They fear US. Make fascists afraid again by joining Indivisible or 50501 and show them whose fucking country this is!

The Blue Wave is here! No matter what a handful of scumbag Democrats try to do to dissuade us, it cannot be stopped. There are 347 days until the most important midterm election in American history. The regime is afraid, and they should be. We are legion, and they are weak. Stay strong. You are never alone.

1

Said assassin, of course, with no online presence or friends or family who would be immediately killed by the Secret Service, so he could never be questioned. They would be 100% a rabid Trump-hating liberal based on “evidence” found in their apartment.

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DGA51
2 days ago
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It could be a lose-lose choice.
Central Pennsyltucky
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